The current spatial atmospheric forcing data cannot accurately depict the actual conditions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where monitoring stations are scarce and unevenly distributed. This deficiency in atmospheric data hinders accurate simulation of plateau permafrost changes on the plateau. In this study, we develop a new approach to evaluate regional permafrost changes, which does not rely on spatially distributed meteorological data but instead uses the regional climate change processes or temperature change rates. Centred on a transient heat conduction permafrost model, this approach was applied to the Qinghai Hoh Xil National Nature Reserve (referred to as Hoh Xil) within the QTP from 1960 to 2015, using the rate of air temperature change provided by the Wudaoliang Meteorological Station, the only national station in Hoh Xil. Simulation results showed that the difference between the simulated and observed change rates of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was less than 0.04 degrees C per decade from 2001 to 2015 at five long-term monitoring sites. The simulated ground temperature profiles in four boreholes from various permafrost zones revealed an error of less than 0.7 degrees C below 5 m in depth. Model validation demonstrates the reliability of this approach for predicting long-term permafrost changes. Future regional permafrost changes were further simulated based on the latest warming scenarios (BCC-CSM2-MR) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Predictions revealed significant differences in the regional permafrost degradation rate under different climate warming scenarios. Under the most severe warming scenario (SSP58.5), permafrost in the study area is projected to still cover 72.2% of the total area by 2100, with most of the Hoh Xil's permafrost becoming warm (MAGT > 1 degrees C) permafrost. This approach not only facilitates the simulation of frozen ground changes in areas with few meteorological monitoring stations but also provides a new perspective for using coarse-resolution palaeoclimate data to investigate permafrost formation and evolution over long time scales.

In the context of global research in snow-affected regions, research in the Australian Alps has been steadily catching up to the more established research environments in other countries. One area that holds immense potential for growth is hydrological modelling. Future hydrological modelling could be used to support a range of management and planning issues, such as to better characterise the contribution of the Australian Alps to flows in the agriculturally important Murray-Darling Basin despite its seemingly small footprint. The lack of recent hydrological modelling work in the Australian Alps has catalysed this review, with the aim to summarise the current state and to provide future directions for hydrological modelling, based on advances in knowledge of the Australian Alps from adjacent disciplines and global developments in the field of hydrologic modelling. Future directions proffered here include moving beyond the previously applied conceptual models to more physically based models, supported by an increase in data collection in the region, and modelling efforts that consider non-stationarity of hydrological response, especially that resulting from climate change.

We investigate the Gisla perched talus slope (Trollaskagi peninsula, northern Iceland), from which a landslide (more specifically a debris avalanche) occurred in October 2020. Although this talus slope is located outside of the permafrost climatic boundaries, geomorphological evidence (i.e., molards in the landslide deposits) suggest that degradation of azonal permafrost could be among the destabilising factors of the landslide. The thermal dynamics of talus slopes is currently poorly understood, as air convection ( the 'chimney effect') can play a role in the persistence of permafrost at the base of talus slopes. We use the software FEFLOW to run physical-based simulations of heat transfer within a cross- of the Gisla talus slope, from -20,000 years to present. We explore the sensitivity of our model to document the initial porosity/ ice content of the talus slope (0.3, 0.5 and 0.8), and the thermal conductivity (TC) of the rock phase (0.75, 1.1 and 1.75 W.m(-1).K-1). Analysis of air temperature data show that the region has been undergoing a general temperature increase for the last similar to 40 years, supporting the possibility that permafrost degradation is among the destabilising factors of the landslide. Our temperature measurements show that a chimney effect indeed occurs at the Gisla talus slope. Although our modelling approach does not simulate air convection itself, permafrost persists at the base of the talus slope in all model scenarios. Increasing the initial porosity/ice content and decreasing the TC of the rock phase enhances persistence of permafrost in the Gisla talus slope. Our approach is unconventional as we initially know that ground ice was present in the Gisla talus slope at the time of the landslide; it attests that the permafrost dynamics in the talus slope is best represented by our most ice-conservative scenario - i.e., with a TC of 0.75 W.m(-1).K-1.

The article is devoted to assessment of the anthropogenic influence in the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. The emission of the main pollutants and greenhouse gases from diesel generators used at Antarctic stations are estimated for the period since the beginning of the development of the oasis area (from 1986 to 2019). It is shown that SO 2 emissions decreased in 2019 compared to peak values in 1990 by 5.6 times, which was due to a significant decrease of the sulfur content in fuel. Emissions of other pollutants mostly increased. Surface air pollution by SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, PM 10 and black carbon (BC) using the AERMOD dispersion model are characterized. It is revealed that the most significant emission health impact is due to increase of surface concentrations of nitrogen dioxide. Deposition fluxes of PM 10 and BC are estimated. The fluxes of PM 10 and BC dry deposition in the territory of Larsemann Hills can reach maximum values of 27.5 and 21.7 mg/m 2 /year, respectively; can be traced in certain directions at a distance of up to 2.0 km or more. Modeling of BC deposition due to the dispersion of emission allowed to make draft estimates of soot concentration in the snow of the area and resulting radiative forcing climatic effects.

Biomass burning (BB) greatly impacts the Maritime Continent through various mechanisms including agricultural burning, land clearing and natural response to drought. The dynamic characteristics of BB in terms of its spatiotemporal distribution, seasonality, transport mechanism, and aerosol properties have prompted numerous research efforts including field campaigns, in -situ measurements, remote sensing, and modelling. Although the differing perspectives of these studies have offered insights on understanding the regional BB issues, it is challenging to compare and resolve the wider picture because of the diversity of approaches. Human -induced global warming has certainly caused multiple observed changes in the regional meteorological characteristics. In this study, we review BB events in the Maritime Continent from 2012 to 2021, focusing on the meteorological influence and knowledge evolution in cloud -aerosol -radiation (CAR). Unlike other reviews, our review examines the occurrence of BB events using synergistic application of ground -based measurement, global reanalysis model and satellite product, which allows us to examine the anomalies for comparison with other studies and identify the unique features of the event. We identified four dominant modes of variability responsible for the occurrence of large-scale BB in the Maritime Continent: (1) El Nin similar to o Southern Oscillations (ENSO), (2) extreme positiveIndian Ocean Dipole (pIOD), (3) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, and (4) Madden -Julian Oscillations (MJO). We reconcile the past CAR studies and summarize their findings based on the four key CAR mechanisms: (1) instantanous radiative forcing from aerosol -radiation interactions, IRFari (2) and its subsequent adjustments, SAari, (3) instantanous radiative forcing from aerosol -cloud interactions, IRFaci, and (4) and its subsequent adjustments, SAaci. We urge future CAR studies in the Maritime Continent should focus on accurate characterization of the composition of biomass burning plume which is a mixture of peatland, agricultural burning and anthropogenic sources.

Litter decomposition represents a major path for atmospheric carbon influx into Arctic soils, thereby controlling below-ground carbon accumulation. Yet, little is known about how tundra litter decomposition varies with microenvironmental conditions, hindering accurate projections of tundra soil carbon dynamics with future climate change. Over 14 months, we measured landscape-scale decomposition of two contrasting standard litter types (Green tea and Rooibos tea) in 90 plots covering gradients of micro-climate and -topography, vegetation cover and traits, and soil characteristics in Western Greenland. We used the tea bag index (TBI) protocol to estimate relative variation in litter mass loss, decomposition rate (k) and stabilisation factor (S) across space, and structural equation modelling (SEM) to identify relationships among environmental factors and decomposition. Contrasting our expectations, microenvironmental factors explained little of the observed variation in both litter mass loss, as well as k and S, suggesting that the variables included in our study were not the major controls of decomposer activity in the soil across the studied tundra landscape. We use these unexpected findings of our study combined with findings from the current literature to discuss future avenues for improving our understanding of the drivers of tundra decomposition and, ultimately, carbon cycling across the warming Arctic.

The Tian Shan mountain range, known as the water towers of Central Asia, plays a key role in local water supply, yet large uncertainties remain about the amount of water that is stored in its glaciers. In this study, we assess the impact of the boundary conditions on ice thickness estimates using two inversion models: a mass conservation (MC) model and a basal shear stress (BS) model. We compare the widely used Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6 with the updated Glacier Area Mapping for Discharge from the Asian Mountains glacier inventory, as well as two digital elevation models (SRTM DEM and Copernicus DEM). The results show that the ice volume (in similar to 2000 CE) in the Tian Shan range is 661.0 +/- 163.5 km(3) for the MC model and 552.8 +/- 85.3 km(3 )for the BS model. There are strong regional differences due to inventory, especially for glaciers in China (17-25%). However, the effect of different DEM sources on ice volume estimation is limited. By the end of the 21st century, the projected mass loss differences between inventories are higher than between adjacent emission scenarios, illustrating the vital importance of high-quality inventories. These differences should be carefully considered during water resource planning.

Understanding and simulating the hydrological cycle, especially in a context of climate change, is crucial for quantitative water risk assessment and basin management. The hydrological cycle is complex as it is a combination of non-linear natural processes and anthropogenic influences that alter landforms and water flows. Human-induced changes of relevance, including changes in land uses, construction of dams and artificial reservoirs, and diversion of the river course, lead to changes in water flows throughout the basin. These should be explicitly accounted for a realistic representation of the anthropogenically altered hydrological cycle. Such a realistic representation of the hydrological cycle is a necessary input for the water risk assessment in a particular region. In this paper, we present a hydrological digital twin (HDT) model of a large anthropized alpine basin: the Adige basin located in the northeast of Italy.Most catchments model often overlook land-uses changes over time and forget to model reservoir operation and their influence over time on water flow. Yet, for example, the Adige basin has>30 reservoirs affecting the water flow. We therefore use the GEOframe modeling framework to demonstrate the ability to create a hydrological twin model accounting for these anthropogenic changes.Specifically, we model each component of the water cycle over 39 years (1980-2018) at daily timescale through calibration of the Adige HDT with a multi-site approach using discharge data of 33 stations, based on a high-resolution (1 km) temperature and precipitation dataset and a calculated crop potential evapotranspiration (PETc) dataset, which accounts for human-induced change of the land cover over time. The modeling system also includes the simulation of artificial reservoirs and dams by the dynamically zoned target release (DZTR) reservoir model.The Adige HDT is assessed/validated/compared through a variety of hydrological processes (i.e., river and reservoir discharges, PETc and actual evapotranspiration, snow, and soil moisture) and data sources (i.e., observations and remote sensing data).Overall, the HDT reproduces well the measured discharge in space and time with a Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) above 0.7 (0.8) for 30 (23) of the 33 gauge-stations. For 7 artificial reservoirs with available data, the reservoir turbinated discharges are successfully reproduced with an average KGE of 0.92. A comparison between modeled and MODIS remote sensing snow data showed an average error of < 10% across the entire basin; the model also presented a good spatio-temporal agreement both with GLEAMS potential (and actual evapotranspiration) with an average KGE of 0.63 (0.60) and a high-level of correlation (0.5 on average) with the ASCAT satellite retrieved soil moisture.The findings of this paper demonstrate the potential of the open-source, component-based, GEOframe system to build a HDT, to provide a reliable and long term (39 years) estimation of all the water cycle components in a complex anthropized river basin at high spatial resolution. Spatially detailed HDT models results of this type can be used to inform basin-wise adaptation policy decisions and better water management practices in a time of changing climate.

This study diagnoses the impact of projected changes in climate and glacier cover on the hydrology of several natural flowing Bow River headwater basins in the Canadian Rockies: the Bow River at Lake Louise (-420.7 km2), the Pipestone River near Lake Louise (-304.2 km2), the Bow River at Banff (-2192.2 km2) all of which drain the high elevation, snowy, partially glaciated Central Range, and the Elbow River at Calgary (-1191.9 km2), which drains the drier Front Ranges and foothills, using models created using the modular, flexible, physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM). Hydrological models were constructed and parameterised in CRHM from local research results to include relevant streamflow generation processes for Canadian Rockies headwater basins, such as blowing snow, avalanching, snow interception and sublimation, energy budget snow and glacier melt, infiltration to frozen and unfrozen soils, hillslope sub-surface water redistribution, wetlands, lakes, evapotranspiration, groundwater flow, surface runoff and open channel flow. Surface layer outputs from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations for the current climate and for the late 21st century climate under a business-as-usual scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) at 4-km resolution, were used to force model simulations to examine the climate change impact. A projected glacier cover under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) was incorporated to assess the impact of concomitant glacier cover decline. Uncalibrated model simulations for the current climate and glacier coverage showed useful predictions of snow accumulation, snowmelt, and streamflow when compared to surface obser-vations from 2000 to 2015. Under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the basins of the Bow River at Banff and Elbow River at Calgary will warm up by 4.7 and 4.5 degrees C respectively and receive 12% to 15% more precipitation annually, with both basins experiencing a greater proportion of precipitation as rainfall. Peak snow accumulation in Bow River Basin will slightly rise by 3 mm, whilst it will drop by 20 mm in Elbow River Basin, and annual snowmelt volume will increase by 43 mm in Bow River Basin but decrease by 55 mm in Elbow River Basin. Snowcovered periods will decline by 37 and 46 days in Bow and Elbow river basins respectively due to sup-pressed snow redistribution by wind and gravity and earlier melt. The shorter snowcovered period and warmer, wetter climate will increase evapotranspiration and glacier melt, if the glaciers were held constant, and decrease sublimation, lake levels, soil moisture and groundwater levels. The hydrological responses of the basins will differ despite similar climate changes because of differing biophysical characteristics, climates and hydrological processes generating runoff. Climate change with concomitant glacier decline is predicted to increase the peak discharge and mean annual water yield by 12.23 m3 s-1 (+11%) and 11% in the higher elevation basins of the Bow River but will decrease the mean annual peak discharge by 3.58 m3 s-1 (-9%) and increase the mean annual water yield by 18% in the lower elevation basin of the Elbow River. This shows complex and compensatory hydrological process responses to climate change with the reduced glacier contribution reducing the impact of higher precipitation in high elevation headwaters and drier soil conditions and lower spring snowpacks reducing peak discharges despite increased precipitation during spring runoff in the Front Range and foothills headwaters under a warmer climate.

This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on the mine life cycle (development, operation and closure phases) of 30 mines located in the northern regions of Canada. To this end, climate projections based on a five -member transient climate change simulation ensemble, performed using a state-of-the art regional climate model, spanning the 1991-2050 period, corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emis-sion scenario are used. A reanalysis-driven simulation for the 1991-2010 period compared against available observations confirm suitability of the model for application in climate change simulations. Assessment of projected changes to mine-relevant climate variables that are important from structural integrity and operation perspectives reveal potential vulnerabilities and opportunities. Active layer thickness increases in the 0.3-2 m range in permafrost regions, coupled with increases in flood probability, as reflected in snow-melt rate increases in the 0.14-6.77% range and increases in the 100-year return levels of daily maximum rainfall in the 5-50% range, suggest potential impacts on the structural integrity of mine infrastructure, such as slope instability and foundation settlement of tailings dams, and supporting infrastructure such as ice/all-season roads. Increases in soil moisture, projected in the 0-11% range, at a few mines, suggest potential impacts on material handling systems, such as increases in the traction factor of the muck-haul and tire rolling resistance, that can lead to low productivity. Projected increases to wind speeds in the 5-10% range for the northernmost regions suggest po-tential impacts on the tailings management facility in terms of increases in tailings resuspension. Overall, this study identified northernmost and northeastern mines to be more vulnerable, with air/soil temperature, pre-cipitation and wind speed being the most influential climate variables. This systematic study, for the first time, has identified potential vulnerabilities of northern Canadian mines, which can inform future high-resolution climate modelling and detailed at-site climate-mine interaction studies that is required for climate-change adaptation related decision-making.