Drought events are among the costliest natural disasters and are increasing in frequency and intensity. Various methods exist to assess the economic effects of drought, yet their practical applications and advantages are often unclear. This paper evaluates three conceptual market- based methods to assess drought's direct and distributive economic effects on agriculture, using production data from a regional soil water balance model and historical price data for the 2018 drought event in Flanders (Belgium). Additionally, semi-structured interviews with 11 agricultural stakeholders (farmers, government experts, sector federation representatives, and potato processors) are applied to explore their perception of two main topics: 1) assessing drought's effects and 2) the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods. Our results align with existing estimations that certain farmers could benefit from a drought event due to a socalled natural hedge. Although the calculations show that consumers are always negatively affected, respondents view the impact on consumers as limited in the Flemish context. Furthermore, respondents view droughts as less damaging and more manageable than flooding or heat waves but express concerns about future water availability. The producer surplus method gained the most support but requires refinement for practical use. Refined producer surplus calculations could support cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses to determine drought's financial effects on agriculture. Investment in adaptation measures could reduce farmers' vulnerability to drought while enabling short-term benefits from price increases. These results could aid in designing efficient drought-management policies and form a basis for further research on the economic effects of drought events.
Despite being a world-class tourist destination, the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI-St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John) face significant challenges related to diversified crop production, food distribution, and food security. High poverty rates among islanders perpetuated by historical iniquities, frequent hurri cane damage, drought, poor soil quality, high food production costs, and limited food distribution networks are just a few of the challenges residents face. Consequently, 97% of the food consumed in the USVI is imported. Frequent hurricane damage, such as the recent damage from Irma and Maria (back-to-back Category 5 storms that hit the islands in 2017) complicated these challenges even more and disrupted food import processes. This manuscript focuses on a case study involving a literature review, participant observation, and a series of semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with key informants about issues related to food insecurity, resilience, and farmer needs regarding business sustainability. The results highlight how the political, economic, and cultural complexities of the USVI stymie efforts to lower barriers related to food accessibility and affordability. The results also reveal a new and vibrant entrepreneurial spirit among native islanders and transplants alike, providing novel entryways into food system change and development. Finally, we share policy implica- tions and next steps toward building agriculture and food system resiliency.