Economic effects of drought on agriculture: Conceptual methods and stakeholders' perceptions

Agricultural stakeholders Distributive effects Economic surplus Interviews Microeconomics
["Vermeulen, Sam","Cools, Jan","Van Passel, Steven"] 2025-01-01 期刊论文
Drought events are among the costliest natural disasters and are increasing in frequency and intensity. Various methods exist to assess the economic effects of drought, yet their practical applications and advantages are often unclear. This paper evaluates three conceptual market- based methods to assess drought's direct and distributive economic effects on agriculture, using production data from a regional soil water balance model and historical price data for the 2018 drought event in Flanders (Belgium). Additionally, semi-structured interviews with 11 agricultural stakeholders (farmers, government experts, sector federation representatives, and potato processors) are applied to explore their perception of two main topics: 1) assessing drought's effects and 2) the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods. Our results align with existing estimations that certain farmers could benefit from a drought event due to a socalled natural hedge. Although the calculations show that consumers are always negatively affected, respondents view the impact on consumers as limited in the Flemish context. Furthermore, respondents view droughts as less damaging and more manageable than flooding or heat waves but express concerns about future water availability. The producer surplus method gained the most support but requires refinement for practical use. Refined producer surplus calculations could support cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses to determine drought's financial effects on agriculture. Investment in adaptation measures could reduce farmers' vulnerability to drought while enabling short-term benefits from price increases. These results could aid in designing efficient drought-management policies and form a basis for further research on the economic effects of drought events.
来源平台:INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION