Permafrost roughly affects half of the boreal region in Alaska and varies greatly in its thermo-physical properties and genesis. In boreal ecosystems, permafrost formation and degradation respond to complex interactions among climate, topography, hydrology, soils, vegetation, and disturbance. We synthesized data on soil thermal conditions and permafrost characteristics to assess current permafrost conditions in central Alaska, and classified and mapped soil landscapes vulnerable to future thaw and thermokarst development. Permafrost soil properties at 160 sites ranged from rocky soils in hillslope colluvium and glacial till, to silty loess, to thick peats on abandoned floodplains and bogs, across 64 geomorphic units. Ground-ice contents (% moisture) varied greatly across geomorphic units. Mean annual ground temperatures at similar to 1 m depth varied 12.5 degrees C across 77 sites with most permafrost near thawing or actively thawing. To assess the vulnerability of permafrost to climate variability and disturbance, we differentiated permafrost responses in terms of rate of thaw, potential thaw settlement, and thermokarst development. Using a rule-based model that uses geomorphic units for spatial extrapolation at the landscape scale, we mapped 10 vulnerability classes across three areas in central Alaska ranging from high potential settlement/low thaw rate in extremely ice-rich loess to low potential settlement/high thaw rate in rocky hillslope colluvium. Permafrost degradation is expected to result in 10 thermokarst landform types. Vulnerability classes corresponded to thermokarst features that developed in response to past climates. Differing patterns in permafrost vulnerability have large implications for ecosystem trajectories, land use, and infrastructure damage from permafrost thaw.

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0 degrees C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation-factors associated with energy balance-were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

Performance of pile foundations is significantly influenced by the micromechanical behaviour of the pile-soil interface. In frozen ground, the interface behaviour is temperature-dependent and viscous. This study examines the pullout behaviour of a single pile embedded in frozen soil using a two-dimensional axisymmetric finite element model developed with Abaqus software. A cohesive zone model (CZM) is employed along with a penalty type contact interaction to represent the interface behaviour while a time-hardening power-law creep model is used to simulate the viscous response of the interaction. The model is coupled with temperature and verified by data from temperature-controlled laboratory pullout and creep tests of model pile in frozen sand. The findings demonstrated that CZM effectively describes the behaviour of the frozen interface. Conceptual models that account for non-uniform temperature profiles and variable temperature time-series, showcase the significant influence of temperature on the overall performance of pile foundations in cold regions.

The degradation of subarctic peatland ecosystems under climate change impacts surrounding landscapes, carbon balance, and biogeochemical cycles. To assess these ecosystems' responses to climate change, it is essential to consider not only the active-layer thickness but also its thermo-hydraulic conditions. Ground-penetrating radar is one of the leading methods for studying the active layer, and this paper proposes systematically investigating its potential to determine the thermal properties of the active layer. Collected experimental data confirm temperature hysteresis in peat linked to changes in water and ice content, which GPR may detect. Using palsa mires of the Kola Peninsula (NW Russia) as a case study, we analyze relationships between peat parameters in the active layer and search for thermal gradient responses in GPR signal attributes. The results reveal that frequency-dependent GPR attributes can delineate thermal intervals of +/- 1 degrees C through disperse waveguides. However, further verification is needed to clarify the conditions under which GPR can reliably detect temperature variations in peat, considering factors such as moisture content and peat structure. In conclusion, our study discusses the potential of GPR for remotely monitoring freeze-thaw processes and moisture distribution in frozen peatlands and its role as a valuable tool for studying peat thermal properties in terms of permafrost stability prediction.

The fine-scale controls of active layer dynamics remain poorly understood, particularly at the southern boundary of continuous permafrost. We examined how environmental conditions associated with upland tundra heath, open graminoid fen, and palsa/peat plateau landforms affected active layer thermal regime (timing, magnitude, and rate of thaw) in a subarctic peatland in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada. A significant increase in active layer thaw depth was evident between 2012 and 2024. Within-season thaw patterns differed among landforms, with tundra heath exhibiting the highest thaw rates and soil temperatures, succeeded by fen and palsa. Air temperature mediated by soil properties, topography, and vegetation affected thaw patterns. The increased thermal conductivity of gravel/sandy tundra heath soils exerted a more pronounced influence on thaw patterns relative to fens and palsas, both of which had a thicker organic layer. Near-surface soil moisture was the lowest in tundra, followed by palsas, and fens. Increased soil moisture impeded active layer thaw, likely due to a combination of soil surface evaporation and meltwater percolation. These findings elucidate the relationship between the biophysical properties of landform features and climate, revealing their role in influencing active layer thaw patterns in a subarctic ecosystem.

This study employs the Global Navigation Satellite System-Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) technique, along with in situ hydrothermal data, to explore the details and mechanisms of permafrost ground surface deformation in the hinterland Tibetan Plateau. Through analyzing GNSS data collected from November 2021 to April 2024, seasonal deformation of up to approximately 5 cm, caused by active layer freeze-thaw cycles, was identified. Additionally, more than 2 years of continuous monitoring revealed a clear ground subsidence rate of 2.7 cm per year due to permafrost thawing. We compared the GNSS-IR monitored deformation with simulated deformation using in situ soil moisture and temperature profiles at 5-220 cm depth and found that the correlation reached 0.9 during the active-layer thawing and freezing period; we also observed that following an exceptionally thawing season, the subsequent thawing season experiences notably greater thaw subsidence. Furthermore, we analyzed the differences in GNSS-IR monitoring results with and without the inclusion of Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) signals, and found that the inclusion of BDS signals reduced the standard deviation of GNSS-IR results by an average of 0.24 mm on snow-free periods, but increased by an average of 0.12 mm during the snow cover periods. This may be due to the longer wavelength of the BDS signal, which exhibits greater diffraction through snow and reduces signal reflectivity compared to other satellite systems. The research results demonstrate the potential and ability of continuous GNSS-IR ground surface deformation monitoring in revealing and exploring the hydrothermal processes within permafrost under climate change.

The extent of wildfires in tundra ecosystems has dramatically increased since the turn of the 21st century due to climate change and the resulting amplified Arctic warming. We simultaneously studied the recovery of vegetation, subsurface soil moisture, and active layer thickness (ALT) post-fire in the permafrost-underlain uplands of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in southwestern Alaska to understand the interaction between these factors and their potential implications. We used a space-for-time substitution methodology with 2017 Landsat 8 imagery and synthetic aperture radar products, along with 2016 field data, to analyze tundra recovery trajectories in areas burned from 1953 to 2017. We found that spectral indices describing vegetation greenness and surface albedo in burned areas approached the unburned baseline within a decade post-fire, but ecological succession takes decades. ALT was higher in burned areas compared to unburned areas initially after the fire but negatively correlated with soil moisture. Soil moisture was significantly higher in burned areas than in unburned areas. Water table depth (WTD) was 10 cm shallower in burned areas, consistent with 10 cm of the surface organic layer burned off during fire. Soil moisture and WTD did not recover in the 46 years covered by this study and appear linked to the long recovery time of the organic layer.

The northwestern region of China is characterized by loess soil and seasonal permafrost. Due to the combined effects of its unique climate and precipitation patterns, local roads frequently suffer from issues such as foundation settlement, erosion, and collapse, which pose significant risks to both road construction and safe operation. This study examines a typical high subgrade in Northwest China, where a scaled laboratory model experiment was conducted. The research investigates the impact of water infiltration at the slope foot, under the dual influences of extreme cold and precipitation, on changes in the internal moisture field and settlement deformation characteristics of both the foundation and subgrade. The results indicate that the variation in moisture content across the follows an arc-shaped diffusion pattern. Settlement is influenced by both the amount of infiltrated water and cold air, with a noticeable lag effect. A settlement of 0.1 cm is considered the threshold for significant impact, with the minimum observed lag period approaching 4 days. The settlement is concentrated in the slope region, exhibiting a bending failure pattern. Numerical simulations reveal that the cross-sectional settlement distribution forms an inverted S shape, and the cumulative moisture content at each monitoring point exhibits a quadratic relationship with the cumulative settlement. The findings of this study provide scientific guidance and technical references for road construction and safe operation in the seasonal permafrost regions of Northwest China.

Under the action of freeze-thaw cycles, the internal temperature and water distribution of slope soils in cold regions change significantly, which directly affects the stability of slopes. In order to study the differences in hydrothermal reactions at different depths and their impacts on the stability of slopes. This study establishes both a freeze-thaw model and a hydrothermal coupling model, combining field measurements with numerical simulations to examine the dynamic changes in hydrothermal characteristics within the slope. The results indicate that the variation in slope temperature with depth can be divided into three stages: initial freezing, stable freezing, and thawing. In the freezing stage, the negative temperature gradient drives water to migrate towards the freezing front, forming segregated ice and inducing frost heave. In the thawing stage, the latent heat released by the phase change in segregated ice promotes water to move towards the slope toe, increasing the water content there and indirectly exacerbating the risk of slope instability. The heat and moisture transfer in frozen soil slopes shows non-linear and dynamic characteristics. The unique process of one-way freezing and two-way thawing makes the thawing rate 1.35 times that of the freezing rate, and this asymmetric characteristic is the key to understanding the mechanism of slope instability.

In the context of global climate change, changes in unfrozen water content in permafrost significantly impact regional terrestrial plant ecology and engineering stability. Through Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) experiments, this study analyzed the thermal characteristic indicators, including supercooling temperature, freezing temperature, thawing temperature, critical temperature, and phase-transition temperature ranges, for silt loam with varying starting moisture levels throughout the freezing and thawing cycles. With varying starting moisture levels throughout the freezing and thawing cycles, a model describing the connection between soil temperature and variations in unfrozen water content during freeze-thaw cycles was established and corroborated with experimental data. The findings suggest that while freezing, the freezing and supercooling temperatures of unsaturated clay increased with the soil's starting moisture level, while those of saturated clay were less affected by water content. During thawing, the initial thawing temperature of clay was generally below 0 degrees C, and the thawing temperature exhibited a power function relationship with total water content. Model analysis revealed hysteresis effects in the unfrozen water content curve during freeze-thaw cycles. Both the phase-transition temperature range and model parameters were sensitive to temperature changes, indicating that the processes of permafrost freezing and thawing are mainly controlled by ambient temperature changes. The study highlights the stability of the difference between freezing temperature and supercooling temperature in clay during freezing. These results offer a conceptual framework for comprehending the thawing mechanisms of permafrost and analyzing the variations in mechanical properties and terrestrial ecosystems caused by temperature-dependent moisture changes in permafrost.