Seismic fragility denotes the probabilities of a system exceeding some prescribed damage levels under a range of seismic intensities. Classical seismic fragility studies in slope engineering usually construct fragility functions by making some assumptions for fragility curve shape, and always neglect spatial variability of soil materials. In this study, an assumption-free method on the basis of probability density evolution theory (PDET) is proposed for seismic fragility assessment of slopes. The random input earthquakes and spatially-variable soil parameters in slope are simultaneously quantified. By the proposed method, assumption-free fragility curves of a slope are established without limiting the fragility curve shape. The obtained fragility results are also compared with those from two classic parametric fragility methods (linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation) and Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the proposed assumption-free method has potential to gives more rigorous and accurate fragility results than classical parametric fragility analysis methods. With the proposed method, more reliable fragility results can be obtained for slope seismic risk assessment.

Current practice to model the occurrence of submarine landslides is based on methods that assess the potential of site-specific failures, all with the objective of providing elements to identify and quantify regional features associated to geohazards, before a project development takes place. Also, survey data to estimate parameters required to model submarine landslides show typically limited availability, mainly because of the cost associated to offshore surveying campaigns. In this paper, a probabilistic calibration approach is introduced using Bayesian statistical inference to maximize the use of available site investigation data, and to best estimate the occurrence of a marine landslide. For this purpose, a landslide model thought for its simplicity is used to illustrate the applicability and potential of the calibration methodology. The aim is to introduce a systematic approach to produce prior probability distributions of the model parameters, based on an actual integrated marine site investigation including geological, geophysical, and geomatics data, to then compare it with a posterior probability distribution of the same model parameters, but estimated after collecting in situ soil samples and testing them in the laboratory to produce the corresponding soil strength properties. This comparison allows to explore (a) the influence of the number of in situ samples, (b) the influence of a landslide factor of safety, and (c) the influence of the soil heterogeneity, into the likelihood of the occurrence of a marine landslide. The model parameters that are considered for calibration include the initial state of the submerged and saturated soil unit weight, the thickness of the soils' unit layers, the pseudo-static seismic coefficient, and the slope angle, while the soil undrained shear strength is considered as the reference parameter to conduct the calibration (i.e., to compare model predictions vs. actual observations). Results show the potential of the proposed methodology to produce landslide geohazard maps, which are needed for the planning and design of marine infrastructure.

Accurate estimation of soil properties is crucial for reliability-based design in engineering practices. Conventional empirical equations and prevalent data-driven models rarely consider uncertainty quantification in both measurement and modelling processes. This study tailors three uncertainty quantification methods including Bayesian learning, Markov chain Monte Carlo and ensemble learning into data-driven modelling, in which support vector regression is selected as the baseline algorithm. The compression index of clay is adopted as an example for model training and testing. In this context, Bayesian learning and Markov chain quantify uncertainty by considering the distribution of function and hyper-parameters, respectively, while different sampled data are employed to explore model uncertainty. These models are evaluated in terms of accuracy, reliability and cost-effectiveness and also compared with Gaussian process regression, etc. The results reveal that based on built-in structural risk minimization, sparse solution and uncertainty quantification, developed models can capture more accurate and reliable correlations from actual measured data over other methods. Their practicability and generalization ability are also verified on a new creep index database. The proposed probabilistic methods are also compiled into a user-friendly platform, showing a significant potential to enrich the data-driven modelling framework and be applied in other geotechnical properties.

The structural integrity of buried pipelines is threatened by the effects of Permanent Ground Deformation (PGD), resulting from seismic-induced landslides and lateral spreading due to liquefaction, requiring accurate analysis of the system performance. Analytical fragility functions allow us to estimate the likelihood of seismic damage along the pipeline, supporting design engineers and network operators in prioritizing resource allocation for mitigative or remedial measures in spatially distributed lifeline systems. To efficiently and accurately evaluate the seismic fragility of a buried operating steel pipeline under longitudinal PGD, this study develops a new analytical model, accounting for the asymmetric pipeline behavior in tension and compression under varying operational loads. This validated model is further implemented within a fragility function calculation framework based on the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), allowing us to efficiently assess the probability of the pipeline exceeding the performance limit states, conditioned to the PGD demand. The evaluated fragility surfaces showed that the probability of the pipeline exceeding the performance criteria increases for larger soil displacements and lengths, as well as cover depths, because of the greater mobilized soil reaction counteracting the pipeline deformation. The performed Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) highlighted the influence of the PGD and soil-pipeline interaction parameters, as well as the effect of the service loads on structural performance, requiring proper consideration in pipeline system modeling and design. Overall, the proposed analytical fragility function calculation framework provides a useful methodology for effectively assessing the performance of operating pipelines under longitudinal PGD, quantifying the effect of the uncertain parameters impacting system response.

Probabilistic seismic performance assessments of engineered structures can be highly sensitive to the seismic input excitation and its variability. In the present study, the scenario-based performance assessment recommended by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P-58 guidelines is adopted to estimate seismic fragility of concrete dams for various seismic hazard scenarios. Due to the scarcity of recorded ground motions and thereby their poor representation of uncertainties, stochastic ground motion simulation methods are utilized to obtain the required input excitations. Moreover, to understand the uncertainty in ground motion simulation models, two broadband stochastic simulation models are used to generate input excitations representing six seismic hazard scenarios defined by earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and soil conditions. Optimal intensity measure parameters for each scenario are identified using a systematic procedure that considers criteria such as efficiency, practicality, proficiency, sufficiency, and hazard compatibility. Fragility curves and surfaces are derived using the cloud analysis technique, taking into account various damage measures and limit state functions. The study finds that the derived fragility curves are particularly sensitive to the selection of earthquake scenarios, the choice of records, and the methods used to calculate fragility curves, with less sensitivity observed to different engineering demand parameters. Given this sensitivity, particularly to ground motion selection, the study highlights the necessity of incorporating both model-to- model variability (epistemic uncertainty) and record-to-record variability (aleatory uncertainty), alongside the established material and modeling uncertainties, in the probabilistic seismic assessment.

The comprehension of the structural behavior of historical buildings is pivotal for preserving them through suitable interventions and designing adequate monitoring systems. The complexity lies in articulated geometries, poor knowledge of materials, and often unknown construction sequences, which may have influenced the stress field in a non-linear material such as masonry. This paper addresses the issues through different modeling strategies accounting for material uncertainties in a probabilistic framework that leverages sensitivity analyses on Finite Element (FE) global models. The prior probability density functions of soil and masonry mechanical parameters are chosen based on expert judgment and available data from experimental campaigns. Response surfaces surrogate numerical models based on general Polynomial Chaos Expansion (gPCE), thus turning burdensome runs into faster analytical evaluations. Modal analyses on the entire FE model of the Baptistery of Pisa are performed to evaluate the sensitivity of masonry and soil mechanical parameters on the variation of the first modal eigenvalues. This aims at understanding the minimum recognizable parameter variation when monitoring natural frequencies, thus guiding the sensors' best positioning.