AimDue to the socioeconomic and environmental damages caused by invasive species, predicting the distribution of invasive plants is fundamental for effectively targeting management efforts. A habitat suitability model (HSM) is a powerful tool to predict potential habitat of invasive species to help guide the early detection of invasive plants. Despite numerous studies of the predictors used in HSMs, there is little consensus about the most appropriate predictors to use in creating ecologically realistic predictions from HSMs.LocationThe contiguous United States.MethodsWe explore 220 invasive terrestrial plant species' existing HSMs constructed with consistent modelling algorithms, background generation methods, predictor resolution, and geographic extent, and calculate the relative importance of predictors for each species. We sort predictors into eight groups (topography, temperature, disturbance, atmospheric water, landscape water, substrate, biotic interaction, and radiation) and compare the importance of predictor groups by plant lifeforms and phylogenetic relatedness.ResultsHuman modification and minimum winter temperature were generally the two highest performing individual predictors across the species studied. The highest-performing predictor groups were disturbance, temperature, and atmospheric water. Across lifeforms, there were minimal differences in the influences of predictor groups, although woody plant models exhibited the largest differences in predictor importance when compared with non-woody plant models. Additionally, we found no significant relationship between the importance of predictor groups and phylogenetic relatedness.Main ConclusionsThis study has implications for informing predictor selection in invasive plant HSMs, leading to more reliable and accurate models of invasive terrestrial plants. Our results emphasize the need to critically select predictors included in HSMs, with special consideration to temperature and disturbance predictors, to accurately predict habitat of invasive plant for detection and response of invasive plant species. With more accurate predictions, managers will be better prepared to address invasive species and reduce their threats to landscapes.

Warming environmental conditions are often credited with increasing Arctic shrub growth and altering abundance and distribution, yet it is unclear whether tundra shrub expansion will continue into future decades. Water availability may begin to limit Arctic shrub growth if increasing air temperatures create drier soil conditions due to increased evapotranspiration and permafrost-thaw-induced soil drainage. However, few studies have effectively considered how dominant tundra shrub species respond to variations in both temperature and moisture. To better understand the key effects of temperature variation and soil moisture on two dominant circumpolar deciduous shrubs, we studied shrub growth along a natural landscape gradient in West Greenland, which is a region observed to be drying due to ongoing warming. We found that the growth forms of both grey willow (Salix glauca) and dwarf birch (Betula nana) were sensitive to warmer and drier conditions. For both species, increases in air temperature positively correlated with greater shrub volume, with the doubling of canopy volume due to increased woody biomass. Leaf biomass was best predicted by edaphic features including extractable ammonium, which was positively related to soil moisture, and bulk density. Warmer soils tended to be drier, suggesting that ongoing warming in the area could lead to significant water limitation. Our findings suggest that drier soil conditions might be limiting foliar production despite warming temperatures for two circumpolar dominant shrubs,Betula nanaandSalix glauca, which could have wide-ranging, biome-level consequences about ongoing and predicted shrub growth and expansion.

Climatic changes resulting from anthropogenic activities over the passed century are repeatedly reported to alter the functioning of pristine ecosystems worldwide, and especially those in cold biomes. Available literature on the process of plant leaf litter decomposition in the temperate Alpine zone is reviewed here, with emphasis on both direct and indirect effects of climate change phenomena on rates of litter decay. Weighing the impact of biotic and abiotic processes governing litter mass loss, it appears that an immediate intensification of decomposition rates due to temperature rise can be retarded by decreased soil moisture, insufficient snow cover insulation, and shrub expansion in the Alpine zone. This tentative conclusion, remains speculative unless empirically tested, but it has profound implications for understanding the biogeochemical cycling in the Alpine vegetation belt, and its potential role as a buffering mechanism to climate change.