With global warming and the intensification of human activities, frozen soils continue to melt, leading to the formation of thermokarst collapses and thermokarst lakes. The thawing of permafrost results in the microbial decomposition of large amounts of frozen organic carbon (C), releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). However, little research has been done on the thermo-water-vapor-carbon coupling process in permafrost, and the interactions among hydrothermal transport, organic matter decomposition, and CO2 transport processes in permafrost remain unclear. We considered the decomposition and release of organic C and established a coupled thermo-water-vapor-carbon model for permafrost based on the study area located in the Beiluhe region of the Qingzang Plateau, China. The model established accurately reflected changes in permafrost temperature, moisture, and C fluxes. Dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation in the warm season led to significant soil water and heat transport, CO2 transport, and organic matter decomposition. During the cold season, however, the soil froze, which weakened organic matter decomposition and CO2 transport. The sensitivity of soil layers to changes in the external environment varied with depth. Fluctuations in energy, water, and CO2 fluxes were greater in shallow soil layers than in deeper ones. The latent heat of water-vapor and water-ice phase changes played a crucial role in regulating the temperature of frozen soil. The low content of soil organic matter in the study area resulted in a smaller influence of the decomposition heat of soil organic matter on soil temperature, compared to the high organic matter content in other soil types (such as peatlands).

Modeling Arctic-Boreal vegetation is a challenging but important task, since this highly dynamic ecosystem is undergoing rapid and substantial environmental change. In this work, we synthesized information on 18 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) that can be used to project vegetation structure, composition, and function in North American Arctic-Boreal ecosystems. We reviewed the ecosystem properties and scaling assumptions these models make, reviewed their applications from the scholarly literature, and conducted a survey of expert opinion to determine which processes are important but lacking in DVMs. We then grouped the models into four categories (specific intention models, forest species models, cohort models, and carbon tracking models) using cluster analysis to highlight similarities among the models. Our application review identified 48 papers that addressed vegetation dynamics either directly (22) or indirectly (26). The expert survey results indicated a large desire for increased representation of active layer depth and permafrost in future model development. Ultimately, this paper serves as a summary of DVM development and application in Arctic-Boreal environments and can be used as a guide for potential model users, thereby prioritizing options for model development.

Future changes of pan-Arctic land-atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology-biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting climate change scenarios (no-policy versus policy) over the 21st century, by considering (1) a detailed water table dynamics and (2) a permafrost-thawing effect. Our simulations indicate that, under present climate conditions, pan-Arctic terrestrial ecosystems act as a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of -0.2 Pg CO2-eq.yr(-1), as a result of a CH4 source (53 Tg CH4 yr(-1)) and a CO2 sink (-0.4 Pg C yr(-1)). In response to warming climate, both CH4 emissions and CO2 uptakes are projected to increase over the century, but the increasing rates largely depend on the climate change scenario. Under the non-policy scenario, the CH4 source and CO2 sink are projected to increase by 60% and 75% by 2100, respectively, while the GHG sink does not show a significant trend. Thawing permafrost has a small effect on GHG sink under the policy scenario; however, under the no-policy scenario, about two thirds of the accumulated GHG sink over the 21st century has been offset by the carbon losses as CH4 and CO2 from thawing permafrost. Over the century, nearly all CO2-induced GHG sink through photosynthesis has been undone by CH4-induced GHG source. This study indicates that increasing active layer depth significantly affects soil carbon decomposition in response to future climate change. The methane emissions considering more detailed water table dynamics continuously play an important role in affecting regional radiative forcing in the pan-Arctic.

Global warming is likely to transform Siberian environments. Recent eco-hydrological evidence indicates that water and carbon cycles have been changing rapidly, with potentially serious effects on the Siberian flora and fauna. We have comprehensively analysed dendrochronological, hydrological, and meteorological data and satellite remote sensing data to track changes in vegetation and the water and carbon cycles in the Lena River Basin, eastern Siberia. The basin is largely covered with larch forest and receives little precipitation. However, from 2005 to 2008 the central part of the basin experienced an extraordinarily high level of precipitation in late summer and winter. This resulted in the degradation of permafrost, forest, and hydrological elements in the region. Dendrochronological data implied that this event was the only incidence of such conditions in the previous 150 years. Based on data collected before and after the event, we developed a permafrost-ecosystem model, including surface soil freeze-thawing processes, to better represent the heat, water, and carbon fluxes in the region. We focused on the surface soil layer, in which an increased thawing depth is now apparent, surface soil moisture, and net primary production. An analysis of observed and model-simulated data indicated that the annual maximum thawing depth (AMTD) had increased gradually on a decadal scale and deepened abruptly after 2005. Climatological analyses of atmospheric water circulation over the region indicated that the recent increases in precipitation over the central Lena River Basin were partly related to cyclone activity. Consequently, the increased precipitation from late-summer to winter resulted in increases in soil moisture, soil temperature, and AMTD in the region.

In terrestrial high-latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze-thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960-2100 in extratropical regions (30-90 degrees N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2-4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5 and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large-scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes.