Continuous permafrost is present across the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. While summer active-layer thaw is common in the low-elevation portions of the Dry Valleys, active layers have not significantly thickened over time. However, in some locations, coastal Antarctic permafrost has begun to warm. Here, based on soil and meteorological measurements from 1993 to 2023, we show that wintertime soil temperatures have increased across multiple sites in the Dry Valleys, at rates exceeding the pace of summer soil warming. Linear warming trends over time are significant (P < 0.05) at six of seven soil monitoring sites. Winter warming is strongly correlated with increased numbers of down-valley wind events (Foehn/katabatics), but it may also be driven by increased incident longwave radiation at some stations (although winter longwave increase is not significant over time). While down-valley wind events increase winter warming, when down-valley wind events are excluded from the record, winter soil warming remains persistent and significant, suggesting that Antarctic soils are experiencing less cold winters over time in response to regional warming. Together, these observations suggest that some Antarctic permafrost may be approaching a transition to discontinuous permafrost in some regions as winter freezing intensity is reduced over time.

Robust estimates of historical changes in aerosols are key for accurate constraints on climate sensitivity. Dry deposition is a primary sink of aerosols from the atmosphere. However, most global climate models do not accurately represent observed strong dependencies of dry deposition following turbulent transport on aerosol size. It is unclear whether there is a substantial impact of mischaracterized aerosol deposition velocities on historical aerosol changes. Here we describe improved mechanistic representation of aerosol dry deposition in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model, ModelE, and illustrate the impact on 1850-2000 changes in global aerosol burdens as well as aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using a set of 1850 and 2000 time slice simulations. We employ two aerosol configurations of ModelE (a bulk mass-based configuration and a configuration that more explicitly represents aerosol size distributions, internal mixing, and microphysics) to explore how model structural differences in aerosol representation alter the response to representation of dry deposition. Both configurations show larger historical increases in the global burdens of non-dust aerosols with the new dry deposition scheme, by 11% in the simpler mass-based configuration and 23% in the more complex microphysical configuration. Historical radiative forcing responses, which vary in magnitude from 5% to 12% as well as sign, depend on the aerosol configuration. Numerical models representing the Earth system are important tools for understanding the drivers of climate change and variability. Particles (also known as aerosols) in the atmosphere can influence climate by scattering or absorbing solar radiation and influencing clouds. How the amount of particles in the atmosphere has changed since preindustrial times is very uncertain. Many processes impact particle spatial distributions and changes with time, as well as how particles influence climate. Sources and sinks of particles need to be represented well in order to have confidence in estimates of changes in particles. Here we more accurately simulate dry deposition, which is a sink of particles, in a numerical model that represents the Earth system, and examine impacts on changes in the amount of particles in the atmosphere from preindustrial times to present day and the particles' influence on climate. ModelE now has process-based representation of aerosol dry deposition, and captures strong observed dependencies on particle size Increases from 1850 to 2000 in the global non-dust aerosol annual burdens are 11%-23% larger with more mechanistic dry deposition Historical radiative forcing responses (-12% to +6%) depend on aerosol representation (e.g., microphysics and mixing state)

China's Northwest Arid Region (NAR), with dry and cold climate conditions and glaciers widely developed in the high mountains, provides vital water resources for Asia. The consecutive cold, warm, dry and wet days have much higher impacts on the water cycle process in this region than extreme temperature and precipitation events with short durations but high intensities. Parametric and nonparametric trend analysis methods widely used in climatology and hydrology are employed to identify the temporal and spatial features of the changes in the consecutive cold, warm, dry and wet days in the NAR based on China's 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees meteorological grid datasets of daily temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2018. This study found that (1) the consecutive cold days (Cold Spell Duration Indicator, CSDI), and the consecutive dry days (CDD) decreased, while the consecutive warm days (Warm Spell Duration Indicator, WSDI), and the consecutive wet days (CWD) increased from 1961 to 2018, (2) and the eastern Kunlun Mountains were the hot spots where all of these consecutive climate indices changed significantly, (3) and the changes in these consecutive climate indices were highly correlated with the rise in the Global Mean Land/Ocean Temperature Index. The results indicated that winters tended to warmer and dryer and summer became hotter and wetter during 1961-2018 in the NAR under the global warming, which can lead to the sustained glacier retreat and the increase in summer runoff in this region, and the eastern Kunlun Mountains are the area where could face high risks of water scarcity and floods if the changes in these climate indices continue in the future. Given the vulnerability of the socio-economic systems in the NAR to a water shortage and floods, it is most crucial to improve the strategies of water resources management, disaster prevention and risk management for this region under climate change.

There is an increased awareness that the biogeochemical cycling at high latitudes will be affected by a changing climate. However, because biogeochemical studies most often focus on a limited number of elements (i.e., C, P and N) we lack baseline conditions for many elements. In this work, we present a 42-element mass-balance budget for lake dominated catchment in West Greenland. By combining site specific concentration data from various catchment compartments (precipitation, active layer soils, groundwater, permafrost, lake water, lake sediments and biota) with catchment geometries and hydrological fluxes from a distributed hydrological model we have assessed present-day mobilization, transport and accumulation of a whole suite of elements with different biogeochemical behavior. Our study shows that, under the cold and dry conditions that prevails close to the inland ice-sheet: i) eolian processes are important for the transport of elements associated with mineral particles (e.g., Al, Ti, Si), and that these elements tend to accumulate in the lake sediment, ii) that even if weathering rates are slowed down by the dry and cold climate, weathering in terrestrial soils is an important source for many elements (e.g., lanthanides), iii) that the cold and dry conditions results in an accumulation of elements supplied by wet deposition (e.g., halogens) in both terrestrial soils and the lake-water column, and iv) that lead and sulfur from legacy pollution are currently being released from the terrestrial system. All these processes are affected by the climate, and we can therefore expect that the cycling of the majority of the 42 studied elements will change in the future. However, it is not always possible to predict the direction of this change, which shows that more multi-element biogeochemical studies are needed to increase our understanding of the consequences of a changing climate for the Arctic environment.

Impacts of increased winter snowfall and warmer summer air temperatures on nitrous oxide (N2O) dynamics in arctic tundra are uncertain. Here we evaluate surface N2O dynamics in both wet and dry tundra in West Greenland, subjected to field manipulations with deepened winter snow and summer warming. The potential denitrification activity (PDA) and potential net N2O production (N2Onet) were measured to assess denitrification and N2O consumption potential. The surface N2O fluxes averaged 0.49 +/- 0.42 and 2.6 +/- 0.84 mu g N2O-N m- 2 h-1, and total emissions were 212 +/- 151 and 114 +/- 63 g N2O-N scaled to the entire study area of 0.15 km2, at the dry and wet tundra, respectively. The experimental summer warming, and in combination with deepened snow, significantly increased N2O emissions at the dry tundra, but not at the wet tundra. The deepened snow increased winter soil temperatures and growing season soil N availability (DON, NH4+-N or NO3- -N), but no main effect of deepened snow on N2O fluxes was found at either tundra ecosystem. The mean PDA was 5- and 121-fold higher than the N2Onet at the dry and wet tundra, respectively, suggesting that N2O might be reduced and emitted as dinitrogen (N2). Overall, this study reveals modest but evident surface N2O fluxes from tundra ecosystems in Western Greenland, and suggests that projected increases in winter precipitation and summer air temperatures may increase N2O emissions, particularly at the dry tundra dominating in this region.

Ongoing studies conducted in northern polar regions reveal that permafrost stability plays a key role in the modern carbon cycle as it potentially stores considerable quantities of greenhouse gases. Rapid and recent warming of the Arc-tic permafrost is resulting in significant greenhouse gas emissions, both from physical and microbial processes. The po-tential impact of greenhouse gas release from the Antarctic region has not, to date, been investigated. In Antarctica, the McMurdo Dry Valleys comprise 10 % of the ice-free soil surface areas in Antarctica and like the northern polar regions are also warming albeit at a slower rate.The work presented herein examines a comprehensive sample suite of soil gas (e.g., CO2, CH4 and He) concentrations and CO2 flux measurements conducted in Taylor Valley during austral summer 2019/2020. Analytical results reveal the presence of significant concentrations of CO2, CH4 and He (up to 3.44 vol%, 18,447 ppmv and 6.49 ppmv, respec-tively) at the base of the active layer. When compared with the few previously obtained measurements, we observe increased CO2 flux rates (estimated CO2 emissions in the study area of 21.6 km2 approximate to 15 tons day-1). We suggest that the gas source is connected with the deep brines migrating from inland (potentially from beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet) towards the coast beneath the permafrost layer. These data provide a baseline for future investigations aimed at monitoring the changing rate of greenhouse gas emissions from Antarctic permafrost, and the potential origin of gases, as the southern polar region warms.

评估当前和未来多年冻土空间分布和动态变化对全球碳循环模拟、气候变化预测以及工程风险评估至关重要。本文使用经广泛验证和应用的半经验模型Kudryavtsev方法，综合考虑温度、积雪、植被、土壤等因素对冻土的影响，以国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）模式模拟结果和SoilGrids2.0数据集等作为输入，计算了2015-2100年北半球冻土顶板温度与活动层厚度在SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585四种不同情景下的逐年时间序列数据，并根据顶板温度计算了北半球冻土面积。该数据集填补了未来不同情境下冻土分布预测数据的空缺，为冻土退化、气候变化、北极生态等相关研究提供了数据参考。数据集包括2015-2100年逐年以下实验数据：（1）冻土顶板温度数据；（2）活动层厚度数据；（3）冻土面积数据。数据集存储为.tif和.xls格式，空间分辨率为0.625°×0.4712°，由690个数据文件组成，数据量为35.6 MB。

Long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration records have suggested a reduction in the positive effect of warming on high-latitude carbon uptake since the 1990s. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the reduced net carbon sink of northern ecosystems with increased air temperature, including water stress on vegetation and increased respiration over recent decades. However, the lack of consistent long-term carbon flux and in situ soil moisture data has severely limited our ability to identify the mechanisms responsible for the recent reduced carbon sink strength. In this study, we used a record of nearly 100 site-years of eddy covariance data from 11 continuous permafrost tundra sites distributed across the circumpolar Arctic to test the temperature (expressed as growing degree days, GDD) responses of gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem respiration (ER) at different periods of the summer (early, peak, and late summer) including dominant tundra vegetation classes (graminoids and mosses, and shrubs). We further tested GPP, NEE, and ER relationships with soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit to identify potential moisture limitations on plant productivity and net carbon exchange. Our results show a decrease in GPP with rising GDD during the peak summer (July) for both vegetation classes, and a significant relationship between the peak summer GPP and soil moisture after statistically controlling for GDD in a partial correlation analysis. These results suggest that tundra ecosystems might not benefit from increased temperature as much as suggested by several terrestrial biosphere models, if decreased soil moisture limits the peak summer plant productivity, reducing the ability of these ecosystems to sequester carbon during the summer.

The impacts of alternating dry and wet conditions on water production and carbon uptake at different scales remain unclear, which limits the integrated management of water and carbon. We quantified the response of runoff efficiency (RE) and plant water-use efficiency (PWUE) to a typical shift from dry to wet episode of 2003-2014 in Australia's Murray-Darling basin using good and specific data products for local application, including Australian Water Availabil-ity Project, Penman-Monteith-Leuning Evapotranspiration V2 product, MODIS MCD12Q1 V6 Land Cover Type and MODIS MOD17A3 V055 GPP product. The results show that there are significant power function relationships be-tween RE and precipitation for basin and all ecosystems, while the PWUE had a negative quadratic correlation with precipitation and satisfied the significance levels of 0.05 for basin and the ecosystems except the grassland and crop-land. The shrubs can achieve the best water production and carbon uptake under dry conditions, while the evergreen broadleaf trees and evergreen needleleaf trees can obtain the best water production and carbon uptake in wet condi-tions, respectively. These findings help integrated basin management for balancing water resource production and climate change mitigation.

The amount of rainfall varies unevenly in different regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with some regions becoming wetter and others drier. Precipitation has an important impact on the process of surface energy balance and the energy-water transfer within soils. To clarify the thermal-moisture dynamics and thermal stability of the active layer in permafrost regions under wet/dry conditions, the verified water-vapour-heat coupling model was used. Changes in the surface energy balance, energy-water transfer within the soil, and thickness of the active layer were quantitatively analyzed. The results demonstrate that rainfall changes significantly affect the Bowen ratio, which in turn affects surface energy exchange. Under wet/dry conditions, there is a positive correlation between rainfall and liquid water flux under the hydraulic gradient; water vapour migration is the main form under the temperature gradient, which indicates that the influence of water vapour migration on thermalmoisture dynamics of the active layer cannot be neglected. Concurrently, regardless of wet or dry conditions, disturbance of the heat transport by conduction caused by rainfall is stronger than that of convection by liquid water. In addition, when rainfall decreases by 1.5 times (212 mm) and increases by 1.5 times (477 mm), the thickness of the active layer increases by 0.12 m and decreases by 0.21 m, respectively. The results show that dry conditions are not conducive to the preservation of frozen soil; however, wet conditions are conducive to the preservation of frozen soil, although there is a threshold value. When this threshold value is exceeded, rainfall is unfavourable for the development of frozen soil.