For two Austrian regions (Amstetten South and P & ouml;llauer valley), climate data from the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 were analyzed and scenarios for +2 degrees C and +3 degrees C global warming (global warming level) were calculated in order to find out which changes relevant to fruit growing can be expected due to global warming. The comparison of the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 already showed relevant changes that will continue to intensify in both scenarios: higher temperatures and less severe frosts in winter, longer growing seasons and an earlier start to vegetation at all altitudes. Late frosts in spring are becoming less frequent, but due to the earlier start of vegetation at the same time, the risk of frost damage - especially in April - remains and may even increase in some areas. The higher temperatures lead to a reduction in the climatic water balance, particularly in summer and at lower altitudes; in dry years, heat and drought stress are to be expected. In the lower altitudes of the two regions, where extensive orchards have had their main distribution up to now, they will come under increasing pressure, particularly on soils with low water retention capacity. Due to warmer summers and winters and longer growing seasons, the climate that is favorable for many types of fruit is increasingly shifting to higher altitudes that were previously less suitable and less commonly used for fruit growing. The risks and uncertainties for fruit production will increase considerably if the temperature rises by +2 degrees C, and at +3 degrees C, traditional forms of cultivation could be at risk. Active climate protection that limits global warming to below +2 degrees C is therefore essential to ensure a future perspective for extensive fruit orchards in Austria.

In this study, climate data from the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 as well as scenarios for +2 degrees C and +3 degrees C global warming (global warming level gwl) were analyzed to find out what changes relevant to fruit growing can be expected in the Lungau region due to global warming. A favorable development due to climate change is already evident in the altitude level be- tween 1000 and 1200 m, which is the most relevant for fruit growing, and this will continue assuming the gwl +2 degrees C scenario. The minimum temperatures in winter will rise by an average of 4.6 degrees C compared to 1961-90, which is why extreme winter frosts will no longer be a limiting factor for most types of fruit. The growing season will be on average 24 days longer than compared to 1961-90, which favors fruit ripening and also enables the cultivation of varieties with a longer development period. The slightly negative climatic water availability already observed in spring is increasing due to the temperatures in spring and summer being around 2 degrees C higher and can lead to heat and drought stress in trees in particularly dry years, which is why the choice of deep soils for fruit growing without additional irrigation is recommended in the future. In the gwl +2 degrees C scenario, the opportunities for extensive orchards in the region outweigh the risks. This opens up the potential for Lungau to develop into a new Mostviertel (author's note: traditional Austrian perry growing region). Although 5 days less with <-2 degrees C are to be expected in April compared to 1961-90, the risk of frost damage remains or may even increase due to the vegetation start being around 14 days earlier and the inner-alpine location, especially in April. The seemingly favourable developments in the region caused by global warming will intensify under the assumption of the +3 degrees C scenario, but at the same time a further increase in extreme events is to be expected, which will significantly relativise the opportunities caused by climate change. In this respect, such a scenario cannot be considered desirable from a regional fruit growing perspective either.