Corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea Boddie (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a common herbivore that causes economic damage to agronomic and specialty crops across North America. The interannual abundance of H. zea is closely linked to climactic variables that influence overwintering survival, as well as within-season host plant availability that drives generational population increases. Although the abiotic and biotic drivers of H. zea populations have been well documented, prior temporal H. zea modeling studies have largely focused on mechanistic/simulation approaches, long term distribution characterization, or degree day-based phenology within the growing season. While these modeling approaches provide insight into H. zea population ecology, growers remain interested in approaches that forecast the interannual magnitude of moth flights which is a key knowledge gap limiting early warning before crops are planted. Our study used trap data from 48 site-by-year combinations distributed across North Carolina between 2008 and 2021 to forecast H. zea abundance in advance of the growing season. To do this, meteorological data from weather stations were combined with crop and soil data to create predictor variables for a random forest H. zea forecasting model. Overall model performance was strong (R2 = 0.92, RMSE = 350) and demonstrates a first step toward development of contemporary model-based forecasting tools that enable proactive approaches in support of integrated pest management plans. Similar methods could be applied at a larger spatial extent by leveraging national gridded climate and crop data paired with trap counts to expand forecasting models throughout the H. zea overwintering range.

Drought may impact plant-soil biotic interactions in ways that modify aboveground herbivore performance, but the outcomes of such biotic interactions under future climate are not yet clear. We performed a growth chamber experiment to assess how long-term, drought-driven changes in belowground communities influence plant growth and herbivore performance using a plant-soil feedback experimental framework. We focussed on two common pasture legumes-lucerne, Medicago sativa L., and white clover, Trifolium repens L. (both Fabaceae)-and foliar herbivores-cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (H & uuml;bner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), and two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae). Soil was collected from a field facility where rainfall had been manipulated for 6 years, focussing on treatments representing ambient rainfall and prolonged drought (50% reduction relative to ambient), to consider the effects of biological legacies mediated by the prolonged drought. All soils were sterilized and re-inoculated to establish the respective home (i.e. where a given plant is cultivated in its own soil) and away (i.e. where a given plant is cultivated in another species' soil) treatments in addition to a sterile control. We found that the relative growth rate (RGR) and relative consumption of larvae were significantly lower on lucerne grown in soil with ambient rainfall legacies conditioned by white clover. Conversely, the RGR of insect larvae was lower on white clover grown in soil with prolonged drought legacies conditioned by lucerne. Two-spotted spider mite populations and area damage (mm2) were significantly reduced on white clover grown in lucerne-conditioned soil in drought legacies. The higher number of nodules found on white clover in lucerne-conditioned soil suggests that root-rhizobia associations may have reduced foliar herbivore performance. Our study provides evidence that foliar herbivores are affected by plant-soil biotic interactions and that prolonged drought may influence aboveground-belowground linkages with potential broader ecosystem impacts.