The acclimation capacity of Betula pendula and Betula pubescens was studied over 4 years in common gardens in central Italy (43 degrees N) and southern (61 degrees N) and northern Finland (67 degrees N), representing drastically different photoperiod and climate in temperate, boreal and subarctic vegetation zones. Two study sites that differed in soil fertility were established at each location, giving a total of six common gardens. The birch material was micropropagated from naturally regenerated stands of B. pendula and B. pubescens from Susa Valley and Rochemolle Valley in northern Italy, Punkaharju in southern Finland and Kittil & auml; in northern Finland. The plants were measured for height growth, stem diameter, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf herbivory and pathogen damage. The effects of soil fertility on the common garden results were also analyzed. The results showed high acclimation capacity of B. pendula and B. pubescens after a long-range transfer from southern to northern Europe, despite the major shift in climate and photoperiod. First-year growth on average was best in boreal southern Finland for all origins. Betula pendula grew more than B. pubescens in Italy and southern Finland, while B. pubescens grew more in northern Finland and better tolerated the northward transfer. The height growth of origins showed a clear latitude gradient from slowly growing northern to fast growing southern origins in the nursery and laboratory, but not in the field. Soil fertility explained a significant part of variation among locations not only for growth variables, but also for leaf chlorophyll content and leaf herbivory and pathogen damage. Leaf herbivore and pathogen damage was greatest in southern Finland. Our results demonstrate good survival of birch from northern Italy in Finnish conditions and support the possibility of long-range south-to-north transfer of Betula species to provide resistant planting material in boreal forests for the rapidly changing climate.
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.
The acceleration of permafrost thaw due to warming, wetting, and disturbance is altering circumpolar landscapes. The effect of thaw is largely determined by ground ice content in near-surface permafrost, making the characterization and prediction of ground ice content critical. Here we evaluate the spatial and stratigraphic variation of near-surface ground ice characteristics in the dominant forest types in the North Slave region near Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Physical variation in the permafrost was assessed through cryostructure, soil properties, and volumetric ice content, and relationships between these parameters were determined. Near-surface ground ice characteristics were contrasted between forest types. In black spruce forests the top of the permafrost was ice-rich and characterized by lenticular and ataxitic cryostructures, indicating the presence of an intermediate layer. Most white spruce/birch forests showed similar patterns; however, an increase in the active layer thickness and permafrost thaw at some sites have eradicated the transition zone, and the large ice lenses encountered at depth reflect segregated ground ice developed during initial downward aggradation of permafrost. Our findings indicate that white spruce/birch terrain will be less sensitive than black spruce forests to near-surface permafrost thaw. However, if permafrost thaws completely, white spruce/birch terrain will probably be transformed into wetland-thaw lake complexes due to high ground ice content at depth.
Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 degrees C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts.