Subarctic palsa mires are natural indicators of the status of permafrost in its sporadic distribution zone. Estimation of the rate of their thawing can become an auxiliary indicator to predict climate shifts. The formation, growth, and degradation of palsas are dynamic processes that depend on seasonal weather fluctuations and local environmental factors. Therefore, accurate forecasts of palsas conditions and related ecosystem shifts must be based on a broad set of attributes of palsas from different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. With this in mind, we studied two palsa mires sites on the Kola Peninsula, for which no thorough descriptions were previously available. The first site, Chavanga, is at the southern limit of the permafrost zone under unfavorable climatic conditions and is a collapsing relic. The second site, Ponoy, in contrast, is within the sporadic permafrost zone with relatively cold and dry conditions. Our dataset was created by combining several methods to produce detailed spatial models of permafrost for the studied palsa mires. We used 3D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey, UAV-based orthophoto maps, peat thermometry, time-domain reflectometry, and manual sampling. We developed two integrated geospatial models that describe the active layer, the configuration of the palsa frozen core, and its thermal state and identify the zones of the most intense thawing. These observations revealed a significant thermal effect of the groundwater flow and its critical role in the palsas segmentation and rapid collapse. We have investigated a regulating effect of micromorphological features of palsa mounds such as heights, slope, depressions, and mire mineral bed through groundwater drainage. As a result, two new scenarios for the palsa degradation process have been developed, emphasizing the influence of environmental factors on the permafrost condition.

The high latitudes cover similar to 20% of Earth's land surface. This region is facing many shifts in thermal, moisture and vegetation properties, driven by climate warming. Here we leverage remote sensing and climate reanalysis records to improve understanding of changes in ecosystem indicators. We applied non-parametric trend detections and Getis-Ord Gi* spatial hotspot assessments. We found substantial terrestrial warming trends across Siberia, portions of Greenland, Alaska, and western Canada. The same regions showed increases in vapor pressure deficit; changes in precipitation and soil moisture were variable. Vegetation greening and browning were widespread across both continents. Browning of the boreal zone was especially evident in autumn. Multivariate hotspot analysis indicated that Siberian ecoregions have experienced substantial, simultaneous, changes in thermal, moisture and vegetation status. Finally, we found that using regionally-based trends alone, without local assessments, can yield largely incomplete views of high-latitude change.

Continuous permafrost is present across the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. While summer active-layer thaw is common in the low-elevation portions of the Dry Valleys, active layers have not significantly thickened over time. However, in some locations, coastal Antarctic permafrost has begun to warm. Here, based on soil and meteorological measurements from 1993 to 2023, we show that wintertime soil temperatures have increased across multiple sites in the Dry Valleys, at rates exceeding the pace of summer soil warming. Linear warming trends over time are significant (P < 0.05) at six of seven soil monitoring sites. Winter warming is strongly correlated with increased numbers of down-valley wind events (Foehn/katabatics), but it may also be driven by increased incident longwave radiation at some stations (although winter longwave increase is not significant over time). While down-valley wind events increase winter warming, when down-valley wind events are excluded from the record, winter soil warming remains persistent and significant, suggesting that Antarctic soils are experiencing less cold winters over time in response to regional warming. Together, these observations suggest that some Antarctic permafrost may be approaching a transition to discontinuous permafrost in some regions as winter freezing intensity is reduced over time.

The stability of arctic permafrost and the carbon it contains are currently threatened by a rapidly warming climate. Burial Lake, situated in northwestern arctic Alaska, is underlain by continuous permafrost and has a uniquely rich set of paleoclimate proxy data that comprise a 40-ka record of climate and environmental change extending well into Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Here, we examine the relationship between erosion, subsurface hydrology, and primary productivity from the Burial Lake sediments to improve our understanding of the links between climate, hydrology, sediment transport, and carbon mobility. The record is developed with radiocarbon (14C) age-offsets from two independent methods used to date the lake sediments: 1) 14 C measurements on paired bulk sediment and plant macrofossils from the same stratigraphic layer of lake sediment and 2) ramped pyrolysis- oxidation (RPO) 14 C analysis that separates fractions of organic carbon (OC) from a single bulk sediment sample based on thermochemical differences through continuous heating. As lakes capture and archive OC transported from the watershed, changes in the amount and relative age of permafrost-derived OC mobilized during past climatic variations can be documented by examining how age-offsets change over time. The Burial Lake sediment revealed higher age-offsets during the cold Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 29-17 ka) than the comparatively warmer post-glacial ( 17 ka-present) and the MIS 3 interstadial ( 40-29 ka) periods. The relatively warm, wet climate of the post-glacial period promoted both terrestrial and aquatic productivity, resulting in increased OC deposition, and it likely favored transport via subsurface flow of dissolved OC (DOC) sourced from soils. This resulted in a greater flux of contemporary OC relative to ancient OC into the lake sediment, lowering the average age offset to 2 ka. In contrast, the low-productivity conditions of the LGM resulted in slow soil accumulation rates, leaving ancient OC in a shallower position in the soil profile and allowing it to be easily eroded in the form of particulate OC (POC). Although the amount of total OC deposited in the lakebed during the LGM is small relative to post-glacial deposition, the majority is ancient, which leads to a relatively high average age offset of 9 ka. Finally, climate and environmental conditions of the MIS 3 interstadial were intermediate between those of the post-glacial and the LGM. As with post-glacial sediments, a relatively large amount of OC is present; however, the vast majority of it is ancient (more similar to the LGM), and it produces an average age offset of 6 ka. The Burial Lake radiocarbon record demonstrates the complexities of the thaw and mobilization of permafrost OC in arctic Alaska, including the balance between production, transport, deposition, remobilization, and preservation. This record highlights the importance of considering factors that both enhance and inhibit erosion (i.e. vegetation cover, lake level, precipitation) and the mechanisms of OC transport (i.e. subsurface flow or erosion) in predictions of future permafrost response to changes in climate.

Increasing greenhouse gas levels drive extensive changes in Arctic and cold-dominated environments, leading to a warmer, more humid, and variable climate. Associated permafrost thaw creates new groundwater flow paths in cold regions that are causing unprecedented environmental changes. This review of recent advances in groundwater research in cold environments has revealed that a new paradigm is emerging where groundwater is at the center of these changes. Groundwater flow and associated heat and solute transport are now used as a basis to understand hydrological changes, permafrost dynamics, water quality, integrity of infrastructure along with ecological impacts. Although major advances have been achieved in cold regions' cryohydrogeological research, the remaining knowledge gaps are numerous. For example, groundwater as a drinking water source is poorly documented despite its social importance. Lateral transport processes for carbon and contaminants are still inadequately understood. Numerical models are improving, but the highly complex physical-ecological changes occurring in the arctic involve coupled thermal, hydrological, hydrogeological, mechanical, and geochemical processes that are difficult to represent and hamper quantitative analysis and limit predictive capacity. Systematic long-term observatories where measurements involving groundwater are considered central are needed to help resolve these research gaps. Innovative transdisciplinary research will be critical to comprehend and predict these complex transformations.

This study shows the impact of black carbon (BC) aerosol atmospheric rivers (AAR) on the Antarctic Sea ice retreat. We detect that a higher number of BC AARs arrived in the Antarctic region due to increased anthropogenic wildfire activities in 2019 in the Amazon compared to 2018. Our analyses suggest that the BC AARs led to a reduction in the sea ice albedo, increased the amount of sunlight absorbed at the surface, and a significant reduction of sea ice over the Weddell, Ross Sea (Ross), and Indian Ocean (IO) regions in 2019. The Weddell region experienced the largest amount of sea ice retreat (similar to 33,000 km(2)) during the presence of BC AARs as compared to similar to 13,000 km(2) during non-BC days. We used a suite of data science techniques, including random forest, elastic net regression, matrix profile, canonical correlations, and causal discovery analyses, to discover the effects and validate them. Random forest, elastic net regression, and causal discovery analyses show that the shortwave upward radiative flux or the reflected sunlight, temperature, and longwave upward energy from the earth are the most important features that affect sea ice extent. Canonical correlation analysis confirms that aerosol optical depth is negatively correlated with albedo, positively correlated with shortwave energy absorbed at the surface, and negatively correlated with Sea Ice Extent. The relationship is stronger in 2019 than in 2018. This study also employs the matrix profile and convolution operation of the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) to detect anomalous events in sea ice loss. These methods show that a higher amount of anomalous melting events were detected over the Weddell and Ross regions. Impact Statement Sea ice protects ice sheets, which are melting at a very high rate to raise the sea level. In addition to global warming, this study is indicative that black carbon aerosols transported from anthropogenic wildfire events, such as from the Amazon, darken the snow, reduce their reflectance, increase the absorption of solar energy incident on the surface, and exacerbate the sea ice retreat. Thus, this study points out that anthropogenic wildfire impacts far away from a region can have a severe impact on sea ice and ice sheets over the Antarctic which has a sea level rise potential of 60 m. Our study shows that only over the Weddell region, sea ice retreat was 20,000 km(2) higher during the presence of BC transport events than other days in 2019.

Soil Moisture (SM) is a key parameter in northern Arctic and sub-Arctic (A-SA) environments that are highly vulnerable to climate change. We evaluated six SM satellite passive microwave datasets using thirteen ground-based SM stations across Northwestern America. The best agreement was obtained with SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) products with the lowest RMSD (Root Mean Square Difference) (0.07 m$3$3 m${-3}$-3) and the highest R (0.55). ESA CCI (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative) also performed well in terms of correlation with a similar R (0.55) but showed a strong variation among sites. Weak results were obtained over sites with high water body fractions. This study also details and evaluates a dedicated retrieval of SM from SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) brightness temperatures based on the $\tau -\omega$tau-omega model. Two soil dielectric models (Mironov and Bircher) and a dedicated soil roughness and single scattering albedo parameterization were tested. Water body correction in the retrieval shows limited improvement. The metrics of our retrievals (RMSD = 0.08 m$3$3 m${-3}$-3 and R = 0.41) are better than SMOS but outperformed by SMAP. Passive microwave satellite remote sensing is suitable for SM retrieval in the A-SA region, but a dedicated approach should be considered.

Arctic fjords are hotspots of marine carbon burial, with diatoms playing an essential role in the biological carbon pump. Under the background of global warming, the proportion of diatoms in total phytoplankton communities has been declining in many high-latitude fjords due to increased turbidity and oligotrophication resulting from glacier melting. However, due to the habitat heterogeneity among Svalbard fjords, diatom responses to glacier melting are also expected to be complex, which will further lead to changes in the biological carbon pumping and carbon sequestration. To address the complexity, three short sediment cores were collected from three contrasting fjords in Svalbard (Krossfjorden, Kongsfjorden, Gronfjorden), recording the history of fjord changes in recent decades during significant glacier melting. The amino acid molecular indicators in cores K4 and KF1 suggested similar organic matter degradation states between these two sites. In contrast to the turbid Kongsfjorden and Gronfjorden, preserved fucoxanthin in Krossfjorden indicated a continuous increase in diatoms since the mid-1980s, corresponding to a 59 % increase in biological carbon pumping, as quantified by the delta C-13 of sedimentary organic carbon. The increasing biological carbon pumping in Krossfjorden is further attributed to its hard rock types in the glacier basin, compared to Kongsfjorden and Gronfjorden, which are instead covered by soft rocks, as confirmed by a one-dimensional model. Given the distribution of rock types among basins in Svalbard, we extrapolate our findings and propose that approximately one-fifth of Svalbard's fjords, especially those with hard rock basins and persistent marine-terminated glaciers, still have the potential for an increase in diatom fractions and efficient biological carbon pumping. Our findings reveal the complexity of fjord phytoplankton responses and biological carbon pumping to increasing glacier melting, and underscore the necessity of modifying Arctic marine carbon feedback to climate change based on results from fjords underlain by hard rocks.

In Arctic landscapes, the active layer forms a near-surface aquifer on top of the permafrost where water and nutrients are available for plants or subject to downslope transport. Warmer summer air temperatures can increase the thickness of the active layer and alter the partitioning of water into evapotranspiration and discharge by increasing the potential evapotranspiration, the depth to the water table, and changing the flow paths but the interacting processes are poorly understood. In this study, a numerical model for surface- and subsurface cryo-hydrology is calibrated based on field observations from a discontinue permafrost area in West Greenland considered sensitive to future climate changes. The validated model is used to simulate the effect of three summers with contrasting temperature regimes to quantify the variations in the active layer thickness, the resulting changes in the water balance, and the implications on solute transport. We find that an increase of summer air temperature by1.6 degrees C, under similar precipitation can increase the active layer thickness by 0.25 m, increase evapotranspiration by 5%, and reduce the total discharge compared to a colder summer by 9%. Differences in soil moisture and evapotranspiration between upslope and downslope were amplified in a warm summer. These hydrological differences impact solute transport which is 1.6 times faster in a cold summer. Surprisingly, we note that future warmer summer with increase in permafrost thaw may not necessary lead to an increase in discharge along a hill slope with underlying permafrost.

Climate change in the northern circumpolar regions is rapidly thawing organic-rich permafrost soils, leading to the substantial release of dissolved CO2 and CH4 into river systems. This mobilization impacts local ecosystems and regional climate feedback loops, playing a crucial role in the Arctic carbon cycle. Here, we analyze the stable carbon (delta 13C) and radiocarbon (F14C) isotopic compositions of dissolved CO2 and CH4 in the Sagavanirktok and Kuparuk River watersheds on the North Slope, Alaska. By examining spatial and seasonal variations in these isotopic signatures, we identify patterns of carbon release and transport across the river continuum. We find consistent CO2 isotopic values along the geomorphological gradient, reflecting a mixture of geogenic and biogenic sources integrated throughout the watershed. Bayesian mixing models further demonstrate a systematic depletion in 13C and 14C signatures of dissolved CO2 sources from spring to fall, indicating increasing contributions of aged carbon as the active layer deepens. This seasonal deepening allows percolating groundwater to access deeper, older soil horizons, transporting CO2 produced by aerobic and anaerobic soil respiration to streams and rivers. In contrast, we observe no clear relationships between the 13C and 14C compositions of dissolved CH4 and landscape properties. Given the reduced solubility of CH4, which facilitates outgassing and limits its transport in aquatic systems, the isotopic signatures are likely indicative of localized contributions from streambeds, adjacent water saturated soils, and lake outflows. Our study illustrates that dissolved greenhouse gases are sensitive indicators of old carbon release from thawing permafrost and serve as early warning signals for permafrost carbon feedbacks. It establishes a crucial baseline for understanding the role of CO2 and CH4 in regional carbon cycling and Arctic environmental change.