The occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures has become more frequent due to the effect of climate change. Hence, various studies have been conducted to analyse the effect of rainfall infiltration on slope stability. Physically-based hydrological models have been commonly used with slope stability models such as the infinite slope model to develop slope susceptibility maps. However, a combination of three-dimensional (3D) water balance model with 3D limit equilibrium method (LEM) has not been commonly used. Hence, in this study, a water balance model, GEOtop was used to investigate the influence of subsurface flow in unsaturated soil under extreme rainfall conditions on regional slope stability in 3D directions. The results from the GEOtop model were used as inputs for 3D LEM slope stability analysis performed using the Scoops3D software to obtain the factor of safety (FOS) map for the region. Four slopes within the region were then selected to be modelled in the twodimensional (2D) seepage and slope stability analyses, SEEP/W and SLOPE/W. Results from the detailed study showed that the pore-water pressures (PWPs) from the 3D water balance analyses were found to be higher than the 2D seepage analyses. Under similar PWP conditions, the FOS from the 2D slope stability analysis was observed to be lower than the 3D analysis for two out of the four slopes. However, the combined 3D water balance and slope stability analyses produced lower FOS compared to the 2D seepage and slope stability analyses due to the higher PWPs in the 3D water balance analyses. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of considering the 3D subsurface flow in unsaturated soil given that it has a significant influence on the FOS of slopes.

The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured-marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004-2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan-Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifthgeneration European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM-simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5-simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4-8 degrees C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze-up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27-40% (55-81 mm) and 33-42% (81-102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9-25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge.

Large differences in future climatic scenarios found when different global circulation models (GCMs) are employed have been extensively discussed in the scientific literature. However, differences in hydrological responses to the climatic scenarios resulting from the use of different hydrological models have received much less attention. Therefore, comparing and quantifying such differences are of particular importance for the water resources management of a catchment, a region, a continent, or even the globe. This study investigates potential impacts of human-induced climate change on the water availability in the Dongjiang basin, South China, using six monthly water balance models, namely the Thornthwaite-Mather (TM), Vrije Universitet Brussel (VUB), Xinanjiang (XAJ), Guo (GM), WatBal (WM), and Schaake (SM) models. The study utilizes 29-year long records of monthly streamflow and climate in the Dongjiang basin. The capability of the six models in simulating the present climate water balance components is first evaluated and the results of the models in simulating the impact of the postulated climate change are then analyzed and compared. The results of analysis reveal that (1) all six conceptual models. have similar capabilities in reproducing historical water balance components; (2) greater differences in the model results occur when the models are used to simulate the hydrological impact of the postulated climate changes; and (3) a model without a threshold in soil moisture simulation results in greater changes in model-predicted soil moisture with respect to alternative climates than the models with a threshold soil moisture. The study provides insights into the plausible changes in basin hydrology due to climate change, that is, it shows that there can be significant implications for the investigation of response strategies for water supply and flood control due to climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.