The aim of this paper is to comprehensively evaluate the abiotic factors that influence changes in the annual growth rates of selected species of tundra plants (Saxifraga oppositifolia L and Salbc polaris Wahlenb.). The study was conducted in the area of the Fuglebergsletta coastal plain, in the vicinity of the Polish Polar Station (Wedel Jarlsberg Land, SW Spitsbergen). Relationships between the studied phenomenon and basic environmental factors and climate indicators were evaluated. The spatial variation of land surface temperatures (LST) was determined, as were the effects of the physical and chemical properties of soils and the spring melting of snow cover on growth rates. It has been argued that the spatial and seasonal variability of annual growth is determined by the rate at which snow cover disappears and by soil moisture, which determines plants' access to water. Soil moisture depends on soil particle size distribution and weather; it is regulated by the supply of snowmelt water and rainfall as well as by the depth of the top layer of permafrost (thaw depth), which determines the level of groundwater during the growing season. The spatial characteristics of the process of the disappearance of seasonal snow cover are co-determined by the morphology of the substrate and the physical properties of the soil. An important but destructive role is played by thawing episodes, which are increasingly frequent in the winter season, 'rain-on-snow' events, and glaze ice. The values of correlation coefficients indicate a positive role for precipitation and negative influence of temperature. The higher the temperature (along with low precipitation), the lesser the extent of plant growth. The observed trend towards warming in polar areas does not inevitably lead to an increase in biomass production. An increase in temperature during the growing season does not necessarily promote plant growth, but rather indicates drought stress caused by the lowering of groundwater levels related to the increase in thaw depth.

Climate change is expected to cause extensive vegetation changes in the Arctic: deciduous shrubs are already expanding, in response to climate warming. The results from transect studies suggest that increasing shrub cover will impact significantly on the surface energy balance. However, little is known about the direct effects of shrub cover on permafrost thaw during summer. We experimentally quantified the influence of Betula nana cover on permafrost thaw in a moist tundra site in northeast Siberia with continuous permafrost. We measured the thaw depth of the soil, also called the active layer thickness (ALT), ground heat flux and net radiation in 10 m diameter plots with natural B. nana cover (control plots) and in plots in which B. nana was removed (removal plots). Removal of B. nana increased ALT by 9% on average late in the growing season, compared with control plots. Differences in ALT correlated well with differences in ground heat flux between the control plots and B. nana removal plots. In the undisturbed control plots, we found an inverse correlation between B. nana cover and late growing season ALT. These results suggest that the expected expansion of deciduous shrubs in the Arctic region, triggered by climate warming, may reduce summer permafrost thaw. Increased shrub growth may thus partially offset further permafrost degradation by future temperature increases. Permafrost models need to include a dynamic vegetation component to accurately predict future permafrost thaw.