Winter storms cause severe damage in German forests. Different modelling approaches have already been used to try and map endangered areas to minimize the risk of wind damage by stand adaption. Prevalent models for Germany include empirical-statistical and hybrid-mechanistic models, such as ForestGALES (FG). As of yet, FG is not extensively used in Germany as its parametrization requires extensive experimental efforts to derive regionally sensitive species-specific parameters. Here, we implement a statistical calibration approach for German forest conditions with observed damage from single tree data, soil types, topography (topex) and gust speed data. We use simulated annealing to generate new species-specific values for the tree species, Norway spruce, European beech, and Douglas fir from within the range of all coniferous (deciduous) species for Norway spruce and Douglas fir (European beech) and an additional 10 % buffer around the default species-specific values for each species. We compare two optimization approaches: First, we aim to maximize the Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC), which is calculated from the confusion matrix, applying a fixed classification threshold of 0.5. In comparison to the optimization at a fixed threshold, we optimized the species-specific parameters by maximizing the area-under-curve (AUC) value directly generated from the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. We compare our statistical parametrizations for the considered species to those currently implemented in FG and validate the resulting damage probabilities based on confusion matrices and related performance measures. We created separate parametrizations for a single-tree and stand-wide analysis of storm damage risk, which we validated with gust speed data for Germany. Our results show, that for the single-tree method, MCC improved for all species: By 0.26 (0.22) for the calibration (validation) subset for Douglas fir, by 0.22 (0.18) for Norway spruce and by 0.08 (0.05) for European beech. The optimization for the stand-method shows an increase in MCC as well, with results not being considered due to low numbers of observation data. We show that for German forests, FG's predictive capability can be improved by statistical optimization when no tree-pulling data is available, which could be valuable for creating further regionalizations of FG.

In the lower Florida Keys, the endangered Florida Key deer and numerous other wildlife species inhabit a vulnerable island environment susceptible to storm surges and rising seawater due to low elevation and flat terrain. Timely and reliable assessment of vegetation damage from natural disasters, such as Hurricane Irma, is crucial for effective habitat management. The study ' s overall objective is to examine Hurricane Irma ' s impact on vegetation on No Name Key, Florida, using remote sensing. The study relates the area change in vegetation obtained from remote sensing analysis to Florida Key deer population changes following the storm. The methodology involved performing a thematic change detection analysis using the following data sources: (1) aerial multispectral images (for pre- and post -Hurricane), (2) airborne lidar data (for pre- and postHurricane), (3) an existing vegetation map, and (4) soil data. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) image classification algorithm was applied to pre- and post -storm input image stacks to create pre- and post -Hurricane Irma vegetation maps. We were then able to obtain the area change information (for various vegetation categories) by performing the change detection analysis of the 2 SVM-classified images. The differences in areas following the storm were calculated for 7 affected vegetation types. Using the area change information following Hurricane Irma, we estimated the number of deer supported by the storm -affected vegetation. These estimated deer numbers, based on the area differences in post -Hurricane Irma vegetation types, were compared to observed deer numbers collected during the post -Hurricane Irma Texas A &M Natural Resources Institute (NRI) deer field survey. The results showed the following: mangroves had the largest negative area changes (area loss), followed by pinelands, hardwoods/hammocks, developed areas, and buttonwoods. Freshwater marshes had the largest positive area changes (area gain). The deer ' s preferred vegetation areas had decreased post -Hurricane Irma, resulting in a reduced deer population compared to pre -storm numbers. The predicted number of the Key deer post -Hurricane Irma fell within a 95% confidence interval of the observed deer population from the post -storm field survey. The study findings and techniques could be applied to study climate change impact, especially sea level rise. This methodology can be valuable in assessing the impact of storms on other wildlife species in similar environments. The applications and methodology are especially relevant considering the increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges and the accelerating rate of sea level rise.