Understanding changes in water balance and land-atmosphere interaction under climate change is crucial for managing water resources in alpine regions, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Evapotranspiration (ET), a key process in the land-atmosphere interaction, is influenced by permafrost degradation. As the active layer in permafrost regions deepens due to climate warming, the resulting shifts in surface hydrologic connectivity and water storage capacity affect vegetation's ability to access water, thereby influencing its growth and regulating ET dynamics, though the full complexity of this process remains unclear. This study employs the Budyko-Fu model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET and the ET ratio (the ratio of ET to precipitation) on the QTP from 1980 to 2100. While ET shows a continuous upward trend, the ET ratio exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, increasing initially and then decreasing. More than two-thirds of permafrost areas on the QTP surpassed the critical ET ratio threshold by 2023, under three emission scenarios. By 2100, nearly all areas are projected to reach the tipping point, with 97 % affected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Meadow and steppe regions are expected to encounter this threshold earlier, whereas forested areas will be less affected, with over 80 % unlikely to reach the tipping point by 2100. Basin-level differences are notable: nearly 90 % of the Qaidam basin exceeded the threshold before 2023, compared to less than 50 % in the Yangtze basin. By 2100, more than 80 % of regions in all basins are expected to cross the tipping point due to ongoing permafrost degradation. This study advances understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in alpine regions, providing critical insights for water resource management and improving extreme weather predictions.

Soil moisture is a key parameter in the exchange of energy and water between the land surface and the atmosphere. This parameter plays an important role in the dynamics of permafrost on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China, as well as in the related ecological and hydrological processes. However, the region's complex terrain and extreme climatic conditions result in low-accuracy soil moisture estimations using traditional remote sensing techniques. Thus, this study considered parameters of the backscatter coefficient of Sentinel-1A ground range detected (GRD) data, the polarization decomposition parameters of Sentinel-1A single-look complex (SLC) data, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on Sentinel-2B data, and the topographic factors based on digital elevation model (DEM) data. By combining these parameters with a machine learning model, we established a feature selection rule. A cumulative importance threshold was derived for feature variables, and those variables that failed to meet the threshold were eliminated based on variations in the coefficient of determination (R2) and the unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE). The eight most influential variables were selected and combined with the CatBoost model for soil moisture inversion, and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to analyze the importance of these variables. The results demonstrated that the optimized model significantly improved the accuracy of soil moisture inversion. Compared to the unfiltered model, the optimal feature combination led to a 0.09 increase in R2 and a 0.7% reduction in ubRMSE. Ultimately, the optimized model achieved a R2 of 0.87 and an ubRMSE of 5.6%. Analysis revealed that soil particle size had significant impact on soil water retention capacity. The impact of vegetation on the estimated soil moisture on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was considerable, demonstrating a significant positive correlation. Moreover, the microtopographical features of hummocks interfered with soil moisture estimation, indicating that such terrain effects warrant increased attention in future studies within the permafrost regions. The developed method not only enhances the accuracy of soil moisture retrieval in the complex terrain of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, but also exhibits high computational efficiency (with a relative time reduction of 18.5%), striking an excellent balance between accuracy and efficiency. This approach provides a robust framework for efficient soil moisture monitoring in remote areas with limited ground data, offering critical insights for ecological conservation, water resource management, and climate change adaptation on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Background and aimsAlpine swamp meadows play a vital role in water conservation and maintaining ecological balance. However, the response mechanisms of its area and hydrological functions under global climate change remain unclear, particularly the impact of permafrost degradation on water storage capacity, which urgently requires quantification.MethodsWe integrated multi-temporal Landsat data (2000-2023) and phenological features to construct a classification framework for alpine swamp meadows. A multi-source remote sensing-based water balance assessment method was developed. Random forest importance evaluation and piecewiseSEM were employed to quantify the impacts and pathways of multidimensional driving factors on changes in alpine swamp meadow area and water storage.ResultsThe phenology-based classification method effectively extracted alpine swamp meadows with a mean producer's accuracy of 92.84%, user's accuracy of 92.14%, and a Kappa coefficient of 0.95. The study found that the spatial expansion of alpine swamp meadows in the watershed showed an initial decrease followed by an increase trend, while the water storage capacity continued to decline, indicating a significant decoupling between the two.ConclusionUnder climate change, increased precipitation and reduced snow cover albedo have led to the expansion of alpine swamp meadows, while enhanced evapotranspiration and the degradation of permafrost aquicludes have caused a systematic decline in their water storage capacity. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing the health of alpine ecosystems and managing water resources under climate change.

Based on ascending and descending orbit SAR data from 2017-2025, this study analyzes the long time-series deformation monitoring and slip pattern of an active-layer detachment thaw slump, a typical active-layer detachment thaw slump in the permafrost zone of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, by using the small baseline subset InSAR (SBAS-InSAR) technique. In addition, a three-dimensional displacement deformation field was constructed with the help of ascending and descending orbit data fusion technology to reveal the transportation characteristics of the thaw slump. The results show that the thaw slump shows an overall trend of south to north movement, and that the cumulative surface deformation is mainly characterized by subsidence, with deformation ranging from -199.5 mm to 55.9 mm. The deformation shows significant spatial heterogeneity, with its magnitudes generally decreasing from the headwall area (southern part) towards the depositional toe (northern part). In addition, the multifactorial driving mechanism of the thaw slump was further explored by combining geological investigation and geotechnical tests. The analysis reveals that the thaw slump's evolution is primarily driven by temperature, with precipitation acting as a conditional co-factor, its influence being modulated by the slump's developmental stage and local soil properties. The active layer thickness constitutes the basic geological condition of instability, and its spatial heterogeneity contributes to differential settlement patterns. Freeze-thaw cycles affect the shear strength of soils in the permafrost zone through multiple pathways, and thus trigger the occurrence of thaw slumps. Unlike single sudden landslides in non-permafrost zones, thaw slump is a continuous development process that occurs until the ice content is obviously reduced or disappears in the lower part. This study systematically elucidates the spatiotemporal deformation patterns and driving mechanisms of an active-layer detachment thaw slump by integrating multi-temporal InSAR remote sensing with geological and geotechnical data, offering valuable insights for understanding and monitoring thaw-induced hazards in permafrost regions.

Permafrost is one of the crucial components of the cryosphere, covering about 25% of the global continental area. The active layer thickness (ALT), as the main site for heat and water exchange between permafrost and the external atmosphere, its changes significantly impact the carbon cycle, hydrological processes, ecosystems, and the safety of engineering structures in cold regions. This study constructs a Stefan CatBoost-ET (SCE) model through machine learning and Blending integration, leveraging multi-source remote sensing data, the Stefan equation, and measured ALT data to focus on the ALT in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Additionally, the SCE model was verified via ten-fold cross-validation (MAE: 20.713 cm, RMSE: 32.680 cm, R2: 0.873, and MAPE: 0.104), and its inversion of QTP's ALT data from 1958 to 2022 revealed 1998 as a key turning point with a slow growth rate of 0.25 cm/a before 1998 and a significantly increased rate of 1.26 cm/a afterward. Finally, based on multiple model input factor analysis methods (SHAP, Pearson correlation, and Random Forest Importance), the study analyzed the ranking of key factors influencing ALT changes. Meanwhile, the importance of Stefan equation results in SCE model is verified. The research results of this paper have positive implications for eco-hydrology in the QTP region, and also provide valuable references for simulating the ALT of permafrost.

Alpine wet meadow (AWM), an important wetland type on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), is sensitive to climate change, which alters the soil hydrothermal regime and impacts ecological and hydrological functions in permafrost regions. The mechanisms underlying extreme AWM degradation in the QTP and hydrothermal factors controlling permafrost degradation remain unclear. In this study, soil hydrothermal processes, soil heat migration, and the permafrost state were measured in AWM and extremely degraded AWM (EDAWM). The results showed that the EDAWM exhibited delayed onset of both soil thawing and freezing, shortened thawing period, and extended freezing period at the lower boundary of the active layer. The lower ground temperatures resulted in a 0.2 m shallower active layer thickness in the EDAWM compared with the AWM. Moreover, the EDAWM altered soil thermal dynamics by redistributing energy, modifying soil moisture, preserving soil organic matter, and adjusting soil thermal properties. As for energy budget, a substantial amount of heat in the EDAWM was consumed by turbulent heat fluxes, particularly latent heat flux, which reduced the amount of heat transferred to the ground. Additionally, the higher soil organic matter content in EDAWM decreased the annual mean soil thermal conductivity from 1.42 W m- 1 K-1 in AWM to 1.26 W m- 1 K-1 in EDAWM, slowing down heat transfer within the active layer and consequently mitigating permafrost degradation. However, with continued climate warming, the soil organic matter content in EDAWM will inevitably decline due to microbial decomposition in the absence of new organic inputs. As the soil organic matter content diminishes, soil heat transfer processes will likely accelerate, and the permafrost warming rate may surpass that in undistributed AWM. These findings enhance our understanding of how alpine ecosystem succession influences regional hydrological cycles and greenhouse gas emissions.

Study region: The Qinghai Lake basin, including China's largest saltwater lake, is located on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Study focus: This study focuses on the hydrological changes between the past (1971-2010) and future period (2021-2060) employing the distributed hydrological model in the Qinghai Lake basin. Lake evaporation, lake precipitation, and water level changes were estimated using the simulations driven by corrected GCM data. The impacts of various factors on the lake water levels were meticulously quantified. New hydrological insights: Relative to the historical period, air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.72 degrees C under SSP2-4.5 and by 2.21 degrees C under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and the future annual precipitation will rise by 34.7 mm in SSP2-4.5 and 44.1 mm in SSP5-8.5 in the next four decades. The ground temperature is projected to show an evident rise in the future period, which thickens the active layer and reduces the frozen depth. The runoff into the lake is a pivotal determinant of future water level changes, especially the runoff from the permafrost degradation region and permafrost region dominates the future water level changes. There will be a continuous rapid increase of water level under SSP5-8.5, while the water level rising will slow down after 2045 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This study provides an enhanced comprehension of the climate change impact on QTP lakes.

Numerous endorheic lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have shown a dramatic increase in total area since 1996. These expanding lakes are mainly located in the interior regions of the QTP, where permafrost is widely distributed. Despite significant permafrost degradation due to global warming, the impact of permafrost thawing on lake evolution in QTP has been underexplored. This study investigated the permafrost degradation and its correlation with lake area increase by selecting four lake basins (Selin Co, Nam Co, Zhari Namco, and Dangqiong Co) in QTP for analysis. Fluid-heat-ice coupled numerical models were conducted on the aquifer cross-sections in these four lake basins, to simulate permafrost thawing driven by rising surface temperatures, and calculate the subsequent changes in groundwater discharge into the lakes. The contribution of these changes to lake storage, which is proportional to lake area, was investigated. Numerical simulation indicates that from 1982 to 2011, permafrost degradation remained consistent across the four basins. During this period, the active layer thickness first increased, then decreased, and partially transformed into talik, with depths reaching up to 25 m. By 2011, groundwater discharge had significantly risen, exceeding 2.9 times the initial discharge in 1988 across all basins. This increased discharge now constitutes up to 17.67 % of the total lake water inflow (Selin Co). The dynamic lake water budget further suggests that groundwater contributed significantly to lake area expansion, particularly since 2000. These findings highlight the importance of considering permafrost thawing as a crucial factor in understanding the dynamics of lake systems in the QTP in the context of climate change.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has undergone significant warming, wetting, and greening (WWG) over decades, alongside substantial alterations in hydrological regimes. These changes present great challenges for safeguarding water resources and ecosystems downstream. However, the lack of field observation and systematic research has obscured our understanding of how hydrological processes respond to the combined influences of climate-permafrost-vegetation. This study focuses on the source regions of the Yangtze River, one of the highest permafrost-covered basins on the QTP, and employs a process-based hydrological model to quantify the effects of WWG on hydrological processes. We show that the increasing precipitation dominates subsurface runoff changes while rising temperature primarily affects surface runoff changes by reducing the frozen duration (-52 days/century) and thickening the active layer (+2.4 cm/year). Greening vegetation primarily affects transpiration and interception evaporation. Warming, wetting, and greening will cause a transition in runoff dynamics from surface runoff dominance to subsurface runoff dominance in permafrost basins, and reduce the risk of both flooding and water shortage indicated by the decreased maximum low flow duration and maximum high flow duration of 11.0 and 5.0 days/year, respectively. Moreover, cold permafrost regions exhibit a greater propensity for generating runoff, as indicated by a higher annual increase in runoff coefficient (0.005/year) and total runoff (4.81 mm/year), compared to warm permafrost regions (with increase of 0.001/year and 1.20 mm/year, respectively). These findings enhance the understanding of hydrological changes due to WWG and provide insights for water resources management in permafrost regions under climate change.

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China faces challenges like thaw slumping, threatening slope stability and infrastructure. Understanding the mechanical properties of the roots of the dominant herbaceous plant species in the alpine meadow layer of the permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is essential for evaluating their role in enhancing soil shear strength and mitigating slope deformation in these fragile environments. In this study, the roots of four dominant herbaceous plant species-Kobresia pygmaea, Kobresia humilis, Carex moorcroftii, and Leontopodium pusillum-that are widely distributed in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were explored to determine their mechanical properties and effects in enhancing soil shear strength. Through indoor single root tensile and root group tensile tests, we determined the root diameter, tensile force, tensile strength, tensile ratio, and strength frequency distributions. We also evaluated their contributions to inhibiting slope deformation and failure during the formation and development of thermal thaw slumps in the alpine meadow. The results showed that the distribution of the root diameter of the dominant plant species is mostly normal, while the tensile strength tends to be logarithmically normally distributed. The relationship between the root diameter and root tensile strength conforms to a power function. The theoretical tensile strength of the root group was calculated using the Wu-Waldron Model (WWM) and the Fiber Bundle Model (FBM) under the assumption that the cumulative single tensile strength of the root bundle is identical to the tensile strength of the root group in the WWM. The FBM considers three fracture modes: FBM-D (the tensile force on each single root is proportional to its diameter relative to the total sum of all the root diameters), FBM-S (the cross-sectional stress in the root bundle is uniform), and FBM-N (each tensile strength test of individual roots experiences an equal load). It was found that the model-calculated tensile strength of the root group was 162.60% higher than the test value. The model-derived tensile force of the root group from the FBM-D, FBM-S, and FBM-N was 73.10%, 28.91%, and 13.47% higher than the test values, respectively. The additional cohesion of the soil provided by the roots was calculated to be 25.90-45.06 kPa using the modified WWM, 67.05-38.15 kPa using the FBM-S, and 57.24-32.74 kPa using the FBM-N. These results not only provide a theoretical basis for further quantitative evaluation of the mechanical effects of the root systems of herbaceous plant species in reinforcing the surface soil but also have practical significance for the effective prevention and control of thermal thaw slumping disasters in the permafrost regions containing native alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau using flexible plant protection measures.