Black carbon (BC) is a major short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) with significant climate and environmentalhealth impacts. This review synthesizes critical advancements in the identification of emerging anthropogenic BC sources, updates to global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP) metrics, technical progress in characterization techniques, improvements in global-regional monitoring networks, emission inventory, and impact assessment methods. Notably, gas flaring, shipping, and urban waste burning have slowly emerged as dominant emission sources, especially in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Arctic regions. The updated GWP over 100 years for BC is estimated at 342 CO2-eq, compared to 658 CO2-eq in IPCC AR5. Recent CMIP6-based Earth System Models (ESMs) have improved attribution of BC's microphysics, identifying a 22 % increase in radiative forcing (RF) over hotspots like East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite progress, challenges persist in monitoring network inter-comparability, emission inventory uncertainty, and underrepresentation of BC processes in ESMs. Future efforts could benefit from the integration of satellite data, artificial intelligence (AI)assisted methods, and harmonized protocols to improve BC assessment. Targeted mitigation strategies could avert up to four million premature deaths globally by 2030, albeit at a 17 % additional cost. These findings highlight BC's pivotal roles in near-term climate and sustainability policy.
Liquefaction hazard analysis is crucial in earthquake-prone regions as it magnifies structural damage. In this study, standard penetration test (SPT) and shear wave velocity (Vs) data of Chittagong City have been used to assess the liquefaction resistance of soils using artificial neural network (ANN). For a scenario of 7.5 magnitude (Mw) earthquake in Chittagong City, estimating the liquefaction-resistance involves utilizing peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) values of 0.15 and 0.28 g. Then, liquefaction potential index (LPI) is determined to assess the severity of liquefaction. In most boreholes, the LPI values are generally higher, with slightly elevated values in SPT data compared to Vs data. The current study suggests that the Valley Alluvium, Beach and Dune Sand may experience extreme liquefaction with LPI values ranges from 9.55 to 55.03 and 0 to 37.17 for SPT and Vs respectively, under a PGA of 0.15 g. Furthermore, LPI values ranges from 25.55 to 71.45 and 9.55 to 54.39 for SPT and Vs correspondingly. The liquefaction hazard map can be utilized to protect public safety, infrastructure, and to create a more resilient Chittagong City.
Understanding changes in water balance and land-atmosphere interaction under climate change is crucial for managing water resources in alpine regions, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Evapotranspiration (ET), a key process in the land-atmosphere interaction, is influenced by permafrost degradation. As the active layer in permafrost regions deepens due to climate warming, the resulting shifts in surface hydrologic connectivity and water storage capacity affect vegetation's ability to access water, thereby influencing its growth and regulating ET dynamics, though the full complexity of this process remains unclear. This study employs the Budyko-Fu model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET and the ET ratio (the ratio of ET to precipitation) on the QTP from 1980 to 2100. While ET shows a continuous upward trend, the ET ratio exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, increasing initially and then decreasing. More than two-thirds of permafrost areas on the QTP surpassed the critical ET ratio threshold by 2023, under three emission scenarios. By 2100, nearly all areas are projected to reach the tipping point, with 97 % affected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Meadow and steppe regions are expected to encounter this threshold earlier, whereas forested areas will be less affected, with over 80 % unlikely to reach the tipping point by 2100. Basin-level differences are notable: nearly 90 % of the Qaidam basin exceeded the threshold before 2023, compared to less than 50 % in the Yangtze basin. By 2100, more than 80 % of regions in all basins are expected to cross the tipping point due to ongoing permafrost degradation. This study advances understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in alpine regions, providing critical insights for water resource management and improving extreme weather predictions.
Permafrost thaw is transforming boreal forests into mosaics of wetlands and drier uplands. Topographic controls on hydrological and ecological conditions impact methane (CH4) fluxes, contributing to uncertainty in local and regional CH4 budgets and underlying drivers. The objective of this study was to explore CH4 fluxes and their drivers in a transitioning boreal forest-fen ecosystem (Goldstream Valley, Alaska, USA). This landscape is characterized by thawing discontinuous permafrost and heterogeneous mosaics of fens, collapse-scar channels, and small mounds of permafrost soils. From a survey in July 2021, observed chamber CH4 fluxes included fen areas with intermediate to very high emissions (29.8-635.3 mg CH4 m(-2) d(-1)), clustered locations with CH4 uptake (-2.11 to -0.7 mg CH4 m(-2) d(-1)), and three anomalous emission hotspots (342.4-772.4 mg CH4 m(-2) d(-1)) that were located near samples with lower emissions. Some surface and near-surface variables partially explained the spatial variation in CH4 flux. Log-transformed CH4 flux had a positive linear relationship with soil moisture at 20 cm depth (R-2 = 0.31, p-value < 1e-5) and negative linear relationships with microtopography (R-2 = 0.13, p-value < 0.006) and slope (R-2 = 0.28, p-value < 2e-5). Methane emissions generally occurred in flat, wet, graminoid-dominated fens, whereas CH4 uptake occurred on permafrost mounds dominated by feather mosses and woody vegetation. However, the CH4 hotspots occurred on drier, slightly sloped locations with low or undetectable near-surface methanogen abundance, suggesting that CH4 was produced in deeper soils. When the hotspot samples were omitted, log-transformed CH4 flux had a positive linear relationship with near-surface methanogen abundance (R-2 = 0.29, p-value = 0.0023), and stronger linear relationships with soil moisture, slope, and soil macronutrient concentrations. Our findings suggest that some CH4 emission hotspots could arise from CH4 in deep taliks. The inference that methanogenesis occurs in deep taliks was strengthened by the identification of intrapermafrost taliks across the study area using low-frequency geophysical induction. This study assesses surface spatial heterogeneity in the context of subsurface permafrost conditions and highlights the complexity of CH4 flux patterns in transitioning forest-wetland ecosystems. To better inform regional CH4 budgets, further research is needed to understand the spatial distribution of terrestrial CH4 hotspots and to resolve their surface, near-surface, and subsurface drivers.
With polar amplification warming the northern high latitudes at an unprecedented rate, understanding the future dynamics of vegetation and the associated carbon-nitrogen cycle is increasingly critical. This study uses the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS 4.1 to simulate vegetation changes for a future climate scenario, generated by the EC-Earth3.3.1 Earth System model, with the forcing of a 560 ppm CO2 level. Using climate output from an earth system model without coupled dynamic vegetation, to run a higher resolution dynamic vegetation standalone model, allows for a more in depth exploration of vegetation changes. Plus, with this approach, the drivers of high latitude vegetation changes are isolated, but there is still a complete understanding of the climate system and the feedback mechanisms that contributed to it. Our simulations reveal an uneven greening response. The already vegetated Southern Scandinavia and western Russia undergo a shift in species composition as boreal species decline and temperate species expand. This is accompanied by a shift to a carbon sink, despite higher litterfall, root turnover and soil respiration rates, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing decomposition. The previously barren or marginal landscapes of Siberia and interior Alaska/Western Canada, undergo significant vegetation expansion, transitioning towards more stable, forested systems with enhanced carbon uptake. Yet, in the previously sparsely vegetated northern Scandinavia, under elevated CO2 temperate species quickly establish, bypassing the expected boreal progression due to surpassed climate thresholds. Here, despite rising productivity, there is a shift to a carbon source. The deeply frozen soils in central Siberia resist colonisation, underscoring the role of continuous permafrost in buffering ecological change. Together, these results highlight that CO2 induced greening does not always equate to enhanced carbon sequestration. The interplay of warming, nutrient constraints, permafrost dynamics and disturbance regimes creates divergent ecosystem trajectories across the northern high latitudes. These findings illustrate a strong need for regional differentiation in climate projections and carbon budget assessments, as the Arctic's role as a carbon sink may be more heterogeneous and vulnerable than previously assumed.
Land surface temperature (LST) plays an important role in Earth energy balance and water/carbon cycle processes and is recognized as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) and an Essential Agricultural Variable (EAV). LST products that are issued from satellite observations mostly depict landscape-scale temperature due to their generally large footprint. This means that a pixel-based temperature integrates over various components, whereas temperature individual components are better suited for the purpose of evapotranspiration estimation, crop growth assessment, drought monitoring, etc. Thus, disentangling soil and vegetation temperatures is a real matter of concern. Moreover, most satellite-based LSTs are contaminated by directional effects due to the inherent anisotropy properties of most terrestrial targets. The characteristics of directional effects are closely linked to the properties of the target and controlled by the view and solar geometry. A singular angular signature is obtained in the hotspot geometry, i.e., when the sun, the satellite and the target are aligned. The hotspot phenomenon highlights the temperature differences between sunlit and shaded areas. However, due to the lack of adequate multi-angle observations and inaccurate portrayal or neglect of solar influence, the hotspot effect is often overlooked and has become a barrier for better inversion results at satellite scale. Therefore, hotspot effect needs to be better characterized, which here is achieved with a three-component model that distinguishes vegetation, sunlit and shaded soil temperature components and accounts for vegetation structure. Our work combines thermal infrared (TIR) observations from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) onboard the LEO (Low Earth Orbit) Sentinel-3, and two sensors onboard GEO (geostationary) satellites, i.e. the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Based on inversion with a Bayesian method and prior information associated with component temperature differences as constrained, the findings include: 1) Satellite observations throughout East Asia around noon indicate that for every 10 degrees change in angular distance from the sun, LST will on average vary by 0.6 K; 2) As a better constraint, the hotspot effect can benefit from multi-angle TIR observations to improve the retrieval of LST components, thereby reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) from approximately 3.5 K, 5.8 K, and 4.1 K to 2.8 K, 3.5 K, and 3.1 K, at DM, EVO and KAL sites, respectively; 3) Based on a dataset simulated with a threedimensional radiative transfer model, a significant inversion error may result if the hotspot is ignored for an angular distance between the viewing and solar directions that is smaller than 30 degrees. Overall, considering the hotspot effect has the potential to reduce inversion noise and to separate the temperature difference between sunlit and shaded areas in a pixel, paving the way for producing stable temperature component products.
Study region: Indus Basin Study focus: Meteorological droughts can result in hydrological and soil moisture droughts with severe consequences for food production. In the Indus basin there are strong upstream-downstream linkages and upstream droughts may have strong downstream impacts. This study identifies periods of meteorological, hydrological and soil moisture drought in the Indus Basin for the period 1981-2010, analyses drought propagation and evaluates the role of meltwater in mitigating drought. We used outputs from a cryosphere-hydrology model (SPHY) and a crop-hydrology model (LPJmL), analysed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), Soil Moisture Anomaly Index (SMAI) and crop yield, which are used as drought indicators to identify periods of drought, analyse drought propagation and its impacts. New hydrological insights for the region: Propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought and hydrological drought to soil moisture drought shows varied patterns and lag times. There were slightly more periods of soil moisture drought when meltwater was not available than when meltwater was available for irrigation. Our results show that identifying the link between soil moisture drought and yield anomaly remains challenging due to differences in temporal resolution of the data. Nevertheless, the results highlight the critical role of meltwater in mitigating yield variability, especially in the more downstream areas. This provides insight into the potential consequences of future cryosphere degradation for food production in the future.
The time-dependent behaviour of soft and clayey soils treated with Deep Cement Mixing (DCM) columns is important for analyzing the long-term performance of civil engineering infrastructures. Previous studies on DCMinstalled composite soil (CS) have primarily focused on examining the soil strength and stiffness characteristics. The limited focus on the time-dependent settlement and stress-strain distribution of CS underscores the need for a more comprehensive understanding of this complex phenomenon. In this study, a lab-scale physical ground model is designed and developed to investigate the time-dependent settlement profile of the composite Montmorillonitic Clay soil (MMC). The settlement behaviour of the ground model is assessed using Creep Hypothesis B and the results are further validated with the Power Law Model. Additionally, a FEM-based numerical simulation is performed to examine the time-dependent settlement and the stress distribution between the column and surrounding clay soil at different depths. The results from the physical model test show that the time-dependent parameter of the ground model (i.e., DCM column installed in MMC) is proportionate to the loading rate until the failure of the DCM column is reached. However, the time-dependent parameter was found to be decreased by 59.04 % in the post-failure phase of the DCM column. This reduction indicates that the DCM column was the primary load-bearing component before its failure. The numerical study shows that the pore water pressure dissipation in the clay soil and DCM column interface was similar at various depths. The top and bottom sections of the DCM column possess higher stress levels, which demonstrates its susceptibility for failure in the DCM column.
Solidified soil (SS) is widely applied for resource utilization of excavated soil (ES), however the waste solidified soil (WSS) may pose environmental hazards in future because of its high pH (>10). WSS is unsuitable for landfill but can be raw materials for preparing recycled solidified soil (RSS) with better mechanical properties than SS. This investigation used OPC and alkali-activated slag (AAS) as binders to solidify ES and WSS and prepare RSS. The mechanical properties of RSS were experimentally verified to be better than SS, increased by over 76 %. The mechanism is that the clay particles in WSS have been solidified to form sand-like particles or adhere to natural sand, resulting in increasing content of sand-sized particles, and the residual clay particles undergo cation exchange under the high pH and Ca2 + content, resulting in a decrease in zeta potential, reducing diffusion layer thickness. As a result, the flowability of RSS increases under the same liquid to solid ratio. The residual unreacted binder particles and high pH in WSS are beneficial for the early and final compressive strength increase of RSS, which allows preparing RSS with lower cost and carbon emission. Finally, the utilization of WSS has significant environmental benefits.
Evaluating the stability of coral islands and reefs in dynamic marine environments, such as waves, tsunamis, storm surges, and earthquakes, is a critical scientific issue in the field of marine geotechnical engineering. Nansha coral sand was used as the study object, and stress-controlled drained and undrained cyclic-loading tests were conducted. The undrained excess pore-water pressure and the drained cumulative volumetric strain of saturated coral sand were determined at various non-plastic fine contents (FC), relative density (D-r), and cyclic stress ratio (CSR). The results indicated that cumulative volumetric strain (epsilon(vp)) developed in coral sand via two modes: cyclic stabilisation and cyclic creep. Analyses revealed that when the potential damage coefficient (DP) x CSR 0.05, epsilon(vp) transitioned into the cyclic creep mode. Utilising cumulative dissipation energy as a linking factor showed an arctangent function relationship between the excess pore water pressure ratio (R-u) and epsilon(vp) values of saturated coral sand with different FC, D-r, and CSR. This relationship was applicable to both stress- and strain-controlled cyclic-loading tests. Parameters m and n of the R-u-epsilon(vp) function model increased with an increasing CSR. Additionally, an increase in the D-r or FC resulted in a decrease in m and an increase in n. Multiple regression analysis further revealed that model parameters corrected for compactness and cyclic stress levels exhibited distinct trends as the void ratio (e) increased. Specifically, CSR alpha x m(D)(R) decreased, and CSR1-alpha x n(D)(R) increased. Both parameters displayed a single power function relationship with e. Based on these findings, a coupled incremental model for the cyclic pore pressure and volumetric strain of saturated coral sand, based on energy conversion, was developed.