喜马拉雅山拥有全球中低纬度带规模最大的山地冰川群,其冰川补给直接影响南亚水系水资源安全。全球变暖背景下,喜马拉雅山冰川响应存在空间分异特征,但21世纪以来冰川动态演化路径及其水文效应仍存在整体上的认知空白。本研究利用偏差校正的CMIP6气候数据集与改进型Global PyGEM-OGGM模型,综合考虑冰川动力学过程与表碛热力学效应,分析预测2000—2100年SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下喜马拉雅山冰川系统多参数响应。结果表明:(1)经偏差校正后,CMIP6多模式集合数据在喜马拉雅山的适用性显著提升(1961—2014年),气温(偏差:-0.02℃,均方根误差:0.41℃)和降水(偏差:-22.31 mm,均方根误差:136.55 mm)的模拟误差显著降低,同时基于多源卫星融合数据验证的Global PyGEM-OGGM冰川数据集(2000—2019年)在冰川质量变化时空模拟中表现优异(相关系数分别为0.59、0.99,均方根误差为0.97 Gt、0.002 Gt),证实二者可为区域气候变化与冰川物质平衡研究提供可靠数据支撑。(2)在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,...
喜马拉雅山拥有全球中低纬度带规模最大的山地冰川群,其冰川补给直接影响南亚水系水资源安全。全球变暖背景下,喜马拉雅山冰川响应存在空间分异特征,但21世纪以来冰川动态演化路径及其水文效应仍存在整体上的认知空白。本研究利用偏差校正的CMIP6气候数据集与改进型Global PyGEM-OGGM模型,综合考虑冰川动力学过程与表碛热力学效应,分析预测2000—2100年SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下喜马拉雅山冰川系统多参数响应。结果表明:(1)经偏差校正后,CMIP6多模式集合数据在喜马拉雅山的适用性显著提升(1961—2014年),气温(偏差:-0.02℃,均方根误差:0.41℃)和降水(偏差:-22.31 mm,均方根误差:136.55 mm)的模拟误差显著降低,同时基于多源卫星融合数据验证的Global PyGEM-OGGM冰川数据集(2000—2019年)在冰川质量变化时空模拟中表现优异(相关系数分别为0.59、0.99,均方根误差为0.97 Gt、0.002 Gt),证实二者可为区域气候变化与冰川物质平衡研究提供可靠数据支撑。(2)在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,...
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) covers the largest regions under low- and mid-latitude permafrost. The evolution of permafrost has significantly affected the hydrology, biogeochemistry, and infrastructure of Asia. However, model reconstructions of long-term permafrost evolution with high accuracy and reliability are insufficient. Here, spatial changes in mean annual ground temperature at the depth where the annual amplitude is zero (MAGT) on the TP since 1981 were modeled and validated based on temperature records from 155 boreholes, and future changes were predicted under scenarios from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results indicated that the MAGT on the TP was approximately 1.5 degrees C (2010 - 2018), and the corresponding permafrost extent on the TP is estimated to be approximately 1.03 x 106 km2, which is projected to decrease to 0.77 x 106, 0.50 x 106, 0.30 x 106, and 0.17 x 106 km2 under the scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, by 2100. As predicted in the SSP585 scenario, permafrost is predicted to largely disappear from many basins of major Asian rivers, such as the Yarlung Zangpo-Brahmaputra, NuSalween, and Lancang-Mekong Rivers, between 2041 and 2060, followed by the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers between 2061 and 2080. Moreover, the original stable permafrost in the West Kunlun Mountains will change to transitional and unstable conditions. Our study offers comprehensive datasets of year-to-year ground temperatures and permafrost extent maps for the TP, which can serve as a fundamental resource for further investigations on the hydrogeology, engineering geology, ecology, and geochemistry of the TP.
An experimental study was carried out to understand the physico-chemical and mechanical properties of marine clay reconstituted with different pore fluids. Three different pore fluids namely distilled water, 0.4 M NaCl and 1.0 M NaCl solutions, and 0.4 M CaCl2 solution were used in this study. The specimens were prepared using a 1D slurry consolidation technique at 50 kPa vertical pressure. This paper mainly includes the microstructural studies conducted using Scanning electron microscopic (SEM) images and Mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) tests. Furthermore, cyclic triaxial and resonant column tests were carried out on the marine clay specimens reconstituted with 0.4 M NaCl and 0.4 M CaCl2 solutions subjected to different confining pressures. The experimental results illustrated that with an increase in concentration of pore fluid the cyclic properties of reconstituted Chennai marine clay increases for strain amplitude varying between 0.001 and 1%.
青藏高原地区水能资源丰富,开展气候变化背景下不同重现期洪水量级计算可为当地水利工程建设提供科学支撑。以帕隆藏布江流域为研究区,将分布式水文模型VIC-Glacier与可解释机器学习方法相结合,基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)以及冰川未来变化预估结果,推求未来近期(2027—2040年)、中期(2047—2060年)、远期(2087—2100年)在中等强迫(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)情景下不同重现期的洪水量级。结果表明:帕隆藏布江流域洪水量级及其变化具有显著的空间异质特征;未来气候情景下,冰川覆盖面积减少、降水量增加导致径流组分发生改变;对于有冰川覆盖流域,不同重现期洪水量级未来整体呈现减少趋势,减少幅度为6.46%~32.27%;对于无冰川覆盖流域,不同重现期洪水量级未来整体呈现增加趋势,增加幅度为2.87%~15.52%。
青藏高原地区水能资源丰富,开展气候变化背景下不同重现期洪水量级计算可为当地水利工程建设提供科学支撑。以帕隆藏布江流域为研究区,将分布式水文模型VIC-Glacier与可解释机器学习方法相结合,基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)以及冰川未来变化预估结果,推求未来近期(2027—2040年)、中期(2047—2060年)、远期(2087—2100年)在中等强迫(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)情景下不同重现期的洪水量级。结果表明:帕隆藏布江流域洪水量级及其变化具有显著的空间异质特征;未来气候情景下,冰川覆盖面积减少、降水量增加导致径流组分发生改变;对于有冰川覆盖流域,不同重现期洪水量级未来整体呈现减少趋势,减少幅度为6.46%~32.27%;对于无冰川覆盖流域,不同重现期洪水量级未来整体呈现增加趋势,增加幅度为2.87%~15.52%。
全球变暖对北半球多年冻土的影响日益显著,多年冻土退化是现代冰冻圈中与气候变化相关的最紧迫问题之一。本研究基于15种不同地球系统模式(ACCESS-CM2、ACCESS-ESM1-5、BCC-CSM2-MR、CanESM5、CESM2、CESM2-WACCM、EC-Earth3、FGOALS-f3-L、IPSL-CM6A-LR、MIROC6、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR、MRI-ESM2-0、NorESM2-LM、NorESM2-MM)的CMIP6土壤温度数据,分析了未来不同排放情境(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)下北半球多年冻土面积和活动层厚度(ALT)的时空格局,重点解析了影响ALT变化的主要环境驱动因子。结果表明:各地球系统模式(ESM)对ALT的模拟能力差异显著。基于性能最优的4个ESM(MPI-ESM1-2-LR、ACCESS-ESM1-5、MPI-ESM1-2-HR和BCC-CSM2-MR)分析发现,2015—2100年间,高排放情境(SSP370、SSP585)下多年冻土面积减少速率显著加快,SSP585情境下冻土面积消退...
全球变暖对北半球多年冻土的影响日益显著,多年冻土退化是现代冰冻圈中与气候变化相关的最紧迫问题之一。本研究基于15种不同地球系统模式(ACCESS-CM2、ACCESS-ESM1-5、BCC-CSM2-MR、CanESM5、CESM2、CESM2-WACCM、EC-Earth3、FGOALS-f3-L、IPSL-CM6A-LR、MIROC6、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR、MRI-ESM2-0、NorESM2-LM、NorESM2-MM)的CMIP6土壤温度数据,分析了未来不同排放情境(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)下北半球多年冻土面积和活动层厚度(ALT)的时空格局,重点解析了影响ALT变化的主要环境驱动因子。结果表明:各地球系统模式(ESM)对ALT的模拟能力差异显著。基于性能最优的4个ESM(MPI-ESM1-2-LR、ACCESS-ESM1-5、MPI-ESM1-2-HR和BCC-CSM2-MR)分析发现,2015—2100年间,高排放情境(SSP370、SSP585)下多年冻土面积减少速率显著加快,SSP585情境下冻土面积消退...
全球变暖对北半球多年冻土的影响日益显著,多年冻土退化是现代冰冻圈中与气候变化相关的最紧迫问题之一。本研究基于15种不同地球系统模式(ACCESS-CM2、ACCESS-ESM1-5、BCC-CSM2-MR、CanESM5、CESM2、CESM2-WACCM、EC-Earth3、FGOALS-f3-L、IPSL-CM6A-LR、MIROC6、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR、MRI-ESM2-0、NorESM2-LM、NorESM2-MM)的CMIP6土壤温度数据,分析了未来不同排放情境(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)下北半球多年冻土面积和活动层厚度(ALT)的时空格局,重点解析了影响ALT变化的主要环境驱动因子。结果表明:各地球系统模式(ESM)对ALT的模拟能力差异显著。基于性能最优的4个ESM(MPI-ESM1-2-LR、ACCESS-ESM1-5、MPI-ESM1-2-HR和BCC-CSM2-MR)分析发现,2015—2100年间,高排放情境(SSP370、SSP585)下多年冻土面积减少速率显著加快,SSP585情境下冻土面积消退...
Tylenchulus semipenetrans is a soil-borne pathogen that causes substantial damage and economic losses to citrus crops worldwide. Due to the high toxicity of chemical nematicides to humans and the environment, biocontrol bacteria have emerged as a promising alternative for managing citrus nematodes. This study aimed to screen bacterial strains for their efficacy to control T. semipenetrans and assess their impact on citrus plant growth. A total of 107 bacterial strains were isolated from the soil and roots of infested citrus trees. Among these, five strains exhibited significant nematicidal activity against T. semipenetrans. Four bacterial densities were tested for each strain: 3.6 x 10(5), 2.5 x 10(4), 3.6 x 10(3), and 1.2 x 10(3) cells/ml. These strains were tested both individually and in combination to evaluate their efficacy. The five strains were identified as Variovorax paradoxus, Bacillus pseudomycoides, Bacillus simplex, Bacillus cereus, and Paracoccus speluncae based on physiological, biochemical, and molecular (16S rRNA gene sequences) analyses. Juvenile mortality (J2s) and egg hatching inhibition were positively correlated with bacterial concentration and exposure duration. The highest juvenile mortality (100%) was observed with a combination of all five bacteria (3.6 x 10(5) cells/ml) after 96 h, while B. cereus alone achieved 98.98% mortality. The maximum nematicidal activities of the bacterial filtrates were generally observed between the 4th and 6th days of incubation, coinciding with peak bacterial growth and biomass production. The selected isolates also demonstrated the ability to produce indole acetic acid and solubilize phosphorus. In greenhouse experiments, the five isolates reduced T. semipenetrans populations by up to 62.96% compared to the control. Additionally, all rhizosphere bacteria and their combination significantly enhanced plant growth parameters (p < 0.0001). Notably, P. speluncae BR21 has not previously been tested for nematicidal effects on any nematode, making this the first documented report of its nematicidal potential.