The NCAR Community Earth System Model is used to study the influences of anthropogenic aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). We perform two sets of 30-year simulations subject to the prescribed perpetual SST annual cycle. One is triggered by the year 2000 climatology anthropogenic aerosol emissions data over the Indian Peninsula (referred to as AERO), and the other one is by the year 1850 (referred to as CTL). Only aerosol direct effects are included in the experiments. In our results, the transition of ISM in AERO relative to the CTL exhibits a similar ensemble-mean onset date with a larger spread, and more abrupt onset in late spring, and an earlier but more gradual withdrawal in early fall. The aerosols-induced circulation changes feature an upward motion over the northeastern Indian Peninsula and strengthened anticyclonic circulation over the Arabia Sea in the pre-monsoon season, and a northward shift of monsoon flow in the developed monsoon period along with strengthened local meridional circulation over northern India. The strengthened anticyclonic circulation over Arabia Sea caused a 16% increase in natural dust transport from the Middle East in the pre-monsoon season. The elevated aerosol heating over Tibet causes stronger ascending motion in the pre-monsoon period that leads to earlier and more abrupt ISM onset. The earlier monsoon withdrawal is attributed to the aerosol-induced anticyclonic flow within 10 & DEG;-25 & DEG;N and cyclonic flow within 0 & DEG;-10 & DEG;N over eastern India and Bay of Bengal that resemble the ISM seasonal transition in September.

For the period 2001-2020, the interannual variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is investigated in connection to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). According to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data, the ISMR and the vegetative activity of the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) in the month of January show a significant negative association. We hypothesized that the January vegetation state affects the ISMR via a delayed hydrological response, in which the wet soil moisture anomaly formed throughout the winter to accommodate the water needs of intensive farming influences the ISMR. The soil moisture anomalies developed in the winter, particularly in the root zone, persisted throughout the summer. Evaporative cooling triggered by increasing soil moisture lowers the summer surface temperature across the IGP. The weakening of monsoon circulation as a result of the reduced intensity of land-sea temperature contrast led in rainfall suppression. Further investigation shows that moisture transport has increased significantly over the past two decades as a result of increasing westerly over the Arabian Sea, promoting rainfall over India. Agriculture activities, on the other hand, have resulted in greater vegetation in India's northwest and IGP during the last two decades, which has a detrimental impact on rainfall processes. Rainfall appears to have been trendless during the last two decades as a result of these competing influences. With a lead time of 5 months, this association between January's vegetation and ISMR could be one of the potential predictors of seasonal rainfall variability.

Recent ground-based measurements reveal that model-based observations are underestimating absorption properties and direct radiative forcing (DRF) due to carbonaceous species by a factor of 2-3 over South and East Asia. Thus, to better constraint these parameters associated with carbonaceous species, seasonal variability records through ground-based measurements are very essential. In this context, we report herein the absorption properties of water-extractable brown carbon (BrC), elemental carbon (EC), and BrC + EC and DRF of BrC and BrC + EC (relative to EC) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) during a weak monsoon season [July-September 2015; influenced by El Nino and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)]. PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <= 2.5 mu m) samples (n = 31) have been assessed from central IGP location at Kanpur. Absorption coefficient at 365 nm (b(abs-365)) of BrC, EC, and BrC + EC centers at 3.6, 8.1, and 11.4 Mm(-1), respectively. Strong linear regression correlation (R = 0.8) of b(abs-365) of BrC with sea-salt and mineral dust corrected potassium (K-BB(+)) indicates biomass burning as the predominant source of BrC over the region in this study. Synergistic effect in b(abs) of BrC + EC (relative to that of EC) increases conspicuously (enhanced by a factor varying from 1.05 to 1.21) with an increase in wavelength from UV (365 nm) to visible region (660 nm). DRF (relative to EC) of BrC during monsoon season ranges from 3.9 to 23.8 (13.0 +/- 5.0) %, whereas total DRF (BrC + EC) ranges from 111.0 to 148.2 (126.6 +/- 10.0) %. Individual contribution of BrC and EC to total DRF has been estimated as 10 and 79.5%, respectively. The remaining contribution (10.5%) to total DRF has been attributed to synergism in absorption properties (i.e., b(abs)) of BrC + EC.

Aerosols, both natural as well as anthropogenic, affect the radiative forcing of Earth's climate and reduce surface albedo. The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height, which depends upon surface heat budget, is analyzed considering the increase in green house gases (GHGs) from pre-industrial to post-industrial era. The PBL climatology shows deeper PBL during pre-monsoon and summer monsoon seasons as compared to post-monsoon and winter. The PBL height has decreased in post-industrial decade compared to pre-industrial decade. The PBL height reduction is due to increasing aerosol and GHGs' concentrations in the recent decades, which causes surface warming and upper tropospheric cooling. Similarly, due to higher loading of the volcanic aerosol injected from the low latitude eruptions, the atmospheric circulation has been affected. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol distributions and the hydrological cycle are examined with a focus on monsoon precipitation over the Indian subcontinent, during January 2001 to December 2005, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg (ECHAM5.5) general circulation model extended by the Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM). The seasonal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellite is broadly well simulated (R approximate to 0.6-0.85) by the model. The spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the precipitation observed over the Indian region are reasonably well simulated (R approximate to 0.5 to 0.8) by the model, while in terms of absolute magnitude, the model underestimates precipitation, in particular in the south-west (SW) monsoon season. The model simulates significant anthropogenic aerosol-induced changes in clear-sky net surface solar radiation (dimming greater than -7 W m-2), which agrees well with the observed trends over the Indian region. A statistically significant decreasing precipitation trend is simulated only for the SW monsoon season over the central-north Indian region, which is consistent with the observed seasonal trend over the Indian region. In the model, this decrease results from a reduction in convective precipitation, where there is an increase in stratiform cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and solar dimming that resulted from increased stability and reduced evaporation. Similarities in spatial patterns suggest that surface cooling, mainly by the aerosol indirect effect, is responsible for this reduction in convective activity. When changes in large-scale dynamics are allowed by slightly disturbing the initial state of the atmosphere, aerosol absorption in addition leads to a further stabilization of the lower troposphere, further reducing convective precipitation.

While some long breaks of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are followed by active spells (BFA), some others are not (BNFA). The circulation during BFA (BNFA) cases helps (prevents) accumulation of absorbing aerosols over central India (CI) resulting in almost three times larger Aerosol Index (AI) over CI, during BFA cases compared to BNFA cases. A seminal role played by the absorbing aerosols in the transition from break to active spells is unraveled through modification of the north-south temperature gradient at lower levels. The meridional gradient of temperature at low level (a dagger T) between aerosol-rich CI and pristine equatorial Indian Ocean is large (> 6A degrees C) and sustains for long time (> 10 days) during BFA leading to significant moisture convergence to CI. The stability effect arising from surface cooling by the aerosols is overcome by the enhanced moisture convergence creating a moist static unstable atmosphere conducive for the large-scale organized convection over the CI region leading to the resurgence of active spells. The moisture convergence induced by a dagger T was also able to overcome possible aerosol indirect effect (Twomey effect) and initiate deep convection and transition to active condition. During BNFA cases, however the maximum a dagger T, which was weaker than the BFA cases by more than 1.5A degrees C, could not sustain required moisture convergence and failed to lead to a sustained active spell. Using data from MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard Terra and several other input parameters from various satellites for the period 2000-2009, the aerosol induced radiative forcing representative of two regions-the CI to the north and the pristine ocean to the south-were estimated and support the differences in observed a dagger T during the two cases. Our results highlight the need for proper inclusion of absorbing aerosols in dynamical models for simulation of the observed variability of MISOs and their extended range prediction.

A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1-0.5A degrees C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between -25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1-2 pentads, and delaying by 1-2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes.