The Yushenfu mining area has special hosting conditions, and the high-intensity coal mining is likely to cause surface cracks and negative impacts on the ecological environment. To accurately predict the location and depth of surface cracks, this paper proposed a prediction method that uses horizontal deformation as the key parameter, incorporating the stress-deformation characteristics of the loose layer. In this paper, the Yushenfu mining area was selected as the study area, the prediction formula of horizontal deformation was optimized and the Active Phase of the subsidence process was classified into two stages. A mechanical model of the wedge-shaped loose layer was established, combining this with the mechanical properties of the surface loose layer in Yushenfu mining area, a prediction method for the location and depth of surface crack was provided. Using the 112201 working face as a case study, the influence of seasonal rainfall on soil strength properties was considered. The results demonstrate that the optimized horizontal deformation formula has better performance compared with traditional calculations, and the accuracy of the method was verified and validated through on-site observations. The research provides an effective approach for predicting the location and depth of mining-induced surface cracks in the Yushenfu mining area.

The western mining regions of China, known for shallow-buried and high-intensity mining activities, face significant ecological threats due to damage to loose strata and the surface. The evolution of fissures within the loose layer is a critical issue for surface ecological environment protection in coal mining areas. The study employed field measurements, mechanical experiments, numerical simulations, and theoretical analysis, using the 'triaxial consolidation without drainage' experiment to assess the physical and mechanical properties of various strata in the loose layer. Additionally, the PFC2D numerical simulation software was employed to construct a numerical model that elucidates the damage mechanisms and reveals the evolution of loose layer fissures and the development of ground cracks. The research findings indicate that during shallow-buried high-intensity mining loose layer fissures undergo a dynamic evolution process characterized by vertical extension-continuous penetration-lateral expansion. As the working face advances, these fissures eventually propagate to the surface, forming ground cracks. The strong force chains within the overlying rock (or soil) layers develop in the form of an inverted catenary arch. As the arch foot and the middle of the arch overlap, fissures propagate along these strong force chains to the surface, resulting in ground cracks. The study elucidates the surface damage patterns in shallow-buried, high-intensity mining, offering theoretical insights for harmonizing coal mining safety with ecological conservation in fragile regions.