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We estimated the current (base years) and future (2021-2100) direct radiative forcing ( DRF) of four aerosol components (water-soluble, insoluble, black carbon (BC), and sea-salt) at urban (Yeonsan (Busan) and Gwangjin (Seoul)) and background sites (Aewol and Gosan (Jeju Island)), based on a modeling approach. The analysis for base years was conducted using PM2.5 samples measured at two urban and two background sites (Yeonsan and Gwangjin: 2016, Aewol and Gosan: 2014). The future DRFs were estimated according to changes in relative humidity (RH) of RCP8.5 climate change scenario at the same sites during four different periods (PI: 2021 similar to 2040, PII: 2041 similar to 2060, PIII: 2061 similar to 2080, and PIV: 2081 similar to 2100). In addition, we compared the differences between the DRFs of future (PI similar to PIV) and base years (2016 and 2014). Overall, the water-soluble component was predominant over all other components in terms of the concentrations, optical parameters (e.g., AOD), and DRFs, regardless of sites. For the base years, the monthly patterns of total DRFs for all components and the DRFs for the water-soluble component varied with sites, and months of their highest and lowest DRFs were different depending on sites. This might be due to the combined effect of the monthly patterns of the concentrations and RHs for each site. For the differences between the DRFs of future and base years, the highest future DRFs at Yeonsan and Aewol ranged from -59 to -63 W/m(2) increasing -20 (July in PII) to -28 W/m(2) (August in PIII) compared to the base years and from -73 to -74 W/m(2) increasing -31 (July in PII) to -41 W/m(2) (September in PIV), respectively. These DRFs at Gwangjin and Gosan ranged from -79 to -84 W/m(2) increasing -29 (June in PII and PIII) to -34 W/m(2) (June in PI) and from -58 to -92 W/m(2) increasing -14 (July in PII) to -26 W/m(2) (May in PI), respectively. The high heating rates at Yeonsan (up to 4.4 K/day in November) and Aewol (up to 3.7 K/day in February) of BC component might be caused by its strong radiative absorption.

期刊论文 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.5572/KOSAE.2020.36.5.688 ISSN: 1598-7132
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