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This study analyzes the effects of Hurricane Eta on the Chiriqui Viejo River basin, revealing the significant impact of extreme weather events on the hydrological dynamics of the region. The maximum rainfall recorded on November 4, 2020, reached 223.8 mm, while the flow in Paso Canoa reached 638.03 m3/s, demonstrating the magnitude of the event and the inability of the basin to handle such high volumes of water. Through a detailed analysis, it was observed that soil saturation resulted in direct runoff of up to 70.0 mm that same day, which shows that the infiltration capacity of the soil was quickly exceeded. Despite the damage observed, there are currently no advanced hydrological studies on extreme events in critical basins such as the Chiriqui Viejo River. This lack of research reflects a serious lack of planning and assessment of the risks associated with phenomena of this magnitude. One of the most critical problems found is the lack of specialized hydrology professionals, who are essential to carry out detailed studies and ensure sustainable management of water resources. In a context where climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme events, the absence of hydrologists in the region puts the resilience of the basin to future disasters at risk. The basin's hydraulic system demonstrated its inability to handle high flows, underscoring the need to improve flood control and water retention infrastructure. In addition, the lack of effective hydrological planning and coordination in the management of hydraulic infrastructures compromises both the safety of downstream communities and the sustainability of hydroelectric reservoirs, vital for the region.

期刊论文 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.scca.2025.100087

Extreme weather events are recognized as major drivers of crop yield losses, which threaten food security and farmers' incomes. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather under climate change, it is crucial to quantify the related future yield damages of important crops to inform prospective climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we present a statistical modeling approach to project the changes in crop yields under climate change for eight majorly cultivated field crops in Germany, estimating the impacts of nine types of extreme weather events. To select the most relevant predictors, we apply the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to district-level yield data. The LASSO models select, on average, 62% of the features, which align with well-known biophysical impacts on crops, suggesting that different extremes at various growth stages are relevant for yield prediction. We project on average 2.5-times more severe impacts on summer crops than on winter crops. Under RCP8.5, crop yields experience a mean change from -2.53% to -8.63% in the far future (2069-98) for summer crops and from -0.80% to -2.88% for winter crops, without accounting for CO2 fertilization effects. Heat impacts are identified as the primary driver of yield losses across all crops for 2069-98, while shifting precipitation patterns exacerbate winter and spring waterlogging, and summer and fall drought. Our findings underscore the utility of LASSO regression in identifying relevant drivers for projecting changes in crop yields across multiple crops, crucial for guiding agricultural adaptation. While the present analysis can identify empirical relationships, replicating these findings in biophysical models could provide new insights into the underlying processes.

期刊论文 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100738 ISSN: 2212-0947

Among climate-change related effects, drought, heat, and waterlogging are the most important adversely affecting the production of potatoes in Europe. As climate change progresses, agricultural practices must adapt to maintain potato yields. This study is based on a European-wide survey. It presents potato growers' perception of climate change, its impact, and possible adaptation strategies, focusing on the results from Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Potato growers strongly agreed that climate change had affected their potato production in the last ten years, as indicated by 98% of German and more than 90% of Swiss and Austrian respondents. Drought caused the most severe impact, and to varying extents damage was caused by heat and the occurrence of pests and pathogens. The most preferred adaptation measure was the planting of adapted varieties. In line with the comparably low access to at least partial irrigation that Austrian potato growers reported, Austria appeared to be the country most affected by drought. Other more pronounced challenges were late spring frost, flash floods, and soil erosion. The study highlights and discusses specific differences between the countries, as well as between conventional and organic potato production based on the Austrian responses. The results underline that to successfully develop effective climate change mitigation strategies, country-specific and local challenges and needs should be considered.

期刊论文 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.3390/agronomy14071399

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

期刊论文 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17079 ISSN: 1354-1013
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