Bedrock-soil layer slopes (BSLSs) are widely distributed in nature. The existence of the interface between bedrock and soil layer (IBSL) affects the failure modes of the BSLSs, and the seismic action makes the failure modes more complex. In order to accurately evaluate the safety and its corresponding main failure modes of BSLSs under seismic action, a system reliability method combined with the upper bound limit analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is proposed. Four types of failure modes and their corresponding factors of safety (Fs) were calculated by MATLAB program coding and validated with case in existing literature. The results show that overburden layer soil's strength, the IBSL's strength and geometric characteristic, and seismic action have significant effects on BSLSs' system reliability, failure modes and failure ranges. In addition, as the cohesion of the inclination angle of the IBSL and the horizontal seismic action increase, the failure range of the BSLS gradually approaches the IBSL, which means that the damage range becomes larger. However, with the increase of overburden layer soil's friction angle, IBSL's depth and strength, and vertical seismic actions, the failure range gradually approaches the surface of the BSLS, which means that the failure range becomes smaller.
Flash floods are often responsible for deaths and damage to infrastructure. The objective of this work is to create a data-driven model to understand how predisposing factors influence the spatial variation of the triggering factor (rainfall intensity) in the case of flash floods in the continental area of Portugal. Flash floods occurrences were extracted from the DISASTER database. We extracted the accumulated precipitation from the Copernicus database by considering two days of duration. The analysed predisposing factors for flooding were extracted considering the whole basin where each occurrence is located. These factors include the basin area, the predominant lithology, drainage density, and the mean or median values of elevation, slope, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), roughness, and four soil properties. The Random Forest algorithm was used to build the models and obtained mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) around 19%, an acceptable value for the objectives of the work. The median of SPI, mean elevation and the area of the basin are the top three most relevant predisposing factors interpreted by the model for defining the rainfall input for flash flooding in mainland Portugal.
Canopy reflectance (CR) models describe the transfer and interaction of radiation from the soil background to the canopy layer and play a vital role in the retrieval of biophysical variables. However, few efforts have focused on estimating soil background scattering operators, resulting in uncertainties in CR modelling, especially over sloping terrain. This study developed a canopy reflectance model for simulating CR over sloping terrain, which combines the general spectral vector (GSV) model, the PROSPECT model, and 4SAIL model coupled with topography (GSV-PROSAILT). The canopy reflectance simulated by GSV-PROSAILT was validated against two datasets: discrete anisotropic radiative transfer (DART) simulations and remote sensing observations. A comparison with DART simulations under various conditions revealed that the GSV-PROSAILT model captures terrain-induced CR distortion with high accuracy (red band: coefficient of determination $\lpar {\rm R 2} \rpar = 0.731$(R2)=0.731, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.007; near infrared (NIR) band: $\rm R2 = 0.8319$R2=0.8319, RMSE = 0.0098). The results of remote sensing observation verification revealed that the GSV-PROSAILT model can be successfully used in CR modelling. These validations confirmed the performance of GSV-PROSAILT in soil and canopy reflectance modelling over sloping terrain, indicating that it can provide a potential tool for biophysical variable retrieval over mountainous areas.
The Tibetan Railway has introduced pressures on the fragile grassland ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the impact of the railway on the carbon sequestration remains unclear, as existing studies primarily focus on in-situ vegetation observations. In this study, we extracted the start and end of the growing season (SOS, EOS) and maximum daily GPP (GPPmax) along the railway corridor from the satellite-derived Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) data, and quantified the extent and intensity of the railway's disturbance on these indicators. We further employed the Statistical Model of Integrated Phenology and Physiology (SMIPP) to translate these disturbances into annual cumulative GPP (GPPann). Results show that Tibetan Railway significantly influences grassland within 50-meters, causing earlier SOS (0.1086 d m-1), delayed EOS (0.0646 d m-1), and reduced GPPmax (0.0069 gC m-2 d-1 m-1) as the distance to the railway gets closer. The advanced SOS and delayed EOS contributed gains of 28.82 and 104.26 MgC y-1, but reduction in GPPmax accounted for a loss of 2952.79 MgC y-1. Railway-induced phenology-physiology trade-off causes GPPann loss of 2819.71 MgC y-1. This study reveals Tibetan Railway's impact on grassland carbon cycling, offering insights for grassland conservation and sustainable transportation infrastructure projects.
Earthquakes are common geological disasters, and slopes under seismic loading can trigger coseismic landslides, while also becoming unstable due to accumulated damage caused by the seismic activity. Reinforced soil slopes are widely used as seismic-resistant geotechnical systems. However, traditional geosynthetics cannot sense internal damage in reinforced soil systems, and existing in-situ distributed monitoring technologies are not suitable for seismic conditions, thus limiting accurate post-earthquake stability assessments of slopes. This study presents, for the first time, the use of a batch molding process to fabricate self-sensing piezoelectric geogrids (SPGG) for distributed monitoring of soil behavior under seismic conditions. The SPGG's reinforcement and damage sensing abilities were verified through model experiments. Results show that SPGG significantly enhances soil seismic resistance and can detect soil failure locations through voltage distortions. Additionally, the tensile deformation of the reinforcement material can be quantified with sub-centimeter precision by tracking impedance changes, enabling high-precision distributed monitoring of reinforced soil under seismic conditions. Notably, when integrated with wireless transmission technology, the SPGG-based monitoring system offers a promising solution for real-time monitoring and early warning in road infrastructure, where rapid detection and response to seismic hazards are critical for mitigating catastrophic outcomes.
Understanding changes in water balance and land-atmosphere interaction under climate change is crucial for managing water resources in alpine regions, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Evapotranspiration (ET), a key process in the land-atmosphere interaction, is influenced by permafrost degradation. As the active layer in permafrost regions deepens due to climate warming, the resulting shifts in surface hydrologic connectivity and water storage capacity affect vegetation's ability to access water, thereby influencing its growth and regulating ET dynamics, though the full complexity of this process remains unclear. This study employs the Budyko-Fu model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET and the ET ratio (the ratio of ET to precipitation) on the QTP from 1980 to 2100. While ET shows a continuous upward trend, the ET ratio exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, increasing initially and then decreasing. More than two-thirds of permafrost areas on the QTP surpassed the critical ET ratio threshold by 2023, under three emission scenarios. By 2100, nearly all areas are projected to reach the tipping point, with 97 % affected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Meadow and steppe regions are expected to encounter this threshold earlier, whereas forested areas will be less affected, with over 80 % unlikely to reach the tipping point by 2100. Basin-level differences are notable: nearly 90 % of the Qaidam basin exceeded the threshold before 2023, compared to less than 50 % in the Yangtze basin. By 2100, more than 80 % of regions in all basins are expected to cross the tipping point due to ongoing permafrost degradation. This study advances understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in alpine regions, providing critical insights for water resource management and improving extreme weather predictions.
This study investigates the inter-annual variability of carbonaceous aerosols (CA) over Kolkata, a megacity in eastern India, using dual carbon isotopes (C-14 and C-13) alongside measurements of the optical properties of brown carbon (BrC). Sampling was conducted during the post-monsoon, winter, and spring seasons over two consecutive years (2020-21 and 2021-22). The analysis reveals that PM2.5 and CA concentrations were higher in 2020-21 (194 +/- 40 and 54 +/- 15 mu g m(-3), respectively) compared to 2021-22 (141 +/- 31 and 44 +/- 21 mu g m(-3)), likely due to higher precipitation in 2021-22. The contribution of biomass burning and biogenic sources to CA (f(bio_TC)) was slightly higher in 2020-21 (70 +/- 3 %) than in 2021-22 (68 +/- 3 %), with both years exhibiting a consistent decreasing trend from post-monsoon to spring. Observed lower values for oxidised CA proxies, such as the WSOC/OC ratio (0.41 +/- 0.08) and AMS-derived f(44) (0.13 +/- 0.02), throughout the study period suggest that surface CA over Kolkata primarily originates from local sources rather than long-range transport. The relative radiative forcing (RRF) also showed a clear reduction in the subsequent year; however, on average, the RRF of methanol-soluble BrC (16 +/- 6 %) was approximately three times higher than that of the water-soluble fraction (5.5 +/- 2.2 %), highlighting the substantial role of BrC in influencing regional radiative forcing. These findings underscore the substantial impact of local emissions over transported pollutants on Kolkata's ground-level air quality.
Amidst global scarcity, preventing pipeline failures in water distribution systems is crucial for maintaining a clean supply while conserving water resources. Numerous studies have modelled water pipeline deterioration; however, existing literature does not correctly understand the failure time prediction for individual water pipelines. Existing time-to-failure prediction models rely on available data, failing to provide insight into factors affecting a pipeline's remaining age until a break or leak occurs. The study systematically reviews factors influencing time-to-failure, prioritizes them using a magnitude-based fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, and compares results with expert opinion using an in-person Delphi survey. The final pipe-related prioritized failure factors include pipe geometry, material type, operating pressure, pipe age, failure history, pipeline installation, internal pressure, earth and traffic loads. The prioritized environment-related factors include soil properties, water quality, extreme weather events, temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this prioritization can assist practitioners and researchers in selecting features for time-based deterioration modelling. Effective time-to-failure deterioration modelling of water pipelines can create a more sustainable water infrastructure management protocol, enhancing decision-making for repair and rehabilitation. Such a system can significantly reduce non-revenue water and mitigate the socio-environmental impacts of pipeline ageing and damage.
This study analyzes the aerosol and precipitable water vapor (PWV) properties at six sites in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), a densely populated and highly polluted region. The main objective is to explore how the columnar PWV is related to the attenuation of shortwave solar radiation (SWR), as well as the combined role of aerosol properties and PWV on radiative forcing based on AERONET data and model (SBDART) simulations. The analysis revealed high aerosol optical depth (AOD) values (0.4-0.6) throughout the year in all the sites, associated with increased PWV (4-5 cm) during the summer monsoon. Comprehensive investigation shows that changes in PWV levels also affect aerosols' size distribution, optical properties and radiation balance in a similar way - but in different magnitudes - between the examined sites. The water vapor radiative effect (WVRE) is highly dependent on aerosol presence, with its magnitude for both surface (-130 to -140 Wm(-2)) and atmospheric forcing becoming higher under clean atmospheres (without aerosols). Aerosol presence is also considered in the computations of the WVRE. In that case, the WVRE becomes more pronounced at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) (30 to 35 Wm(-2)) but exhibits a lower forcing impact on the surface (about -45 Wm(-2)) and within the atmosphere (70-80 Wm(-2)), suggesting important aerosol-PWV interrelations. The atmospheric heating rate due to PWV is more than double (3.5-4.5 K Day(-1)) that of aerosols (1-1.9 K Day(-1)), highlighting its essential role in radiative effects and climate implications over the IGP region. The radiative impacts of PWV and aerosols are further examined as a function of the single scattering albedo, solar zenith angle, and absorbing AOD at the different sites, revealing dependence on both astronomical and atmospheric variables related to aerosol absorption, thus unravelling the combined role of aerosols and PWV in climate implications.
Thawing-triggered slope failures and landslides are becoming an increasing concern in cold regions due to the ongoing climate change. Predicting and understanding the behaviour of frozen soils under these changing conditions is therefore critical and has led to a growing interest in the research community. To address this challenge, we present the first mesh-free smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) computational framework designed to handle the multi-phase and multi-physic coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) process in frozen soils, namely the THM-SPH computational framework. The frozen soil is considered a tri-phase mixture (i.e., soil, water and ice), whose governing equations are then established based on u-p-T formulations. A critical-state elasto-plastic Clay and Sand Model for Frozen soils (CASM-F), formulated in terms of solid-phase stress, is then introduced to describe the transition response and large deformation behaviour of frozen soils due to thawing action for the first time. Several numerical verifications and demonstrations highlight the usefulness of this advanced THM-SPH computational framework in addressing challenging problems involving thawing-induced large deformation and failures of slopes. The results indicate that our proposed single-layer, fully coupled THM-SPH model can predict the entire failure process of thawing-induced landslides, from the initiation to post-failure responses, capturing the complex interaction among multiple coupled phases. This represents a significant advancement in the numerical modelling of frozen soils and their thawing-induced failure mechanisms in cold regions.