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Observations by the Lunar Prospector and the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer spacecraft suggest the existence of a near-global deposit of weakly bound water ice on the Moon, extending from a depth of a decimetre to at least three metres. The existence of such a layer is puzzling, because water ice would normally desorb at the prevailing temperatures. We here determine the conditions for long-term thermal stability of such a reservoir against solar and meteoroid-impact heating. This is done by using the highly versatile thermophysics code nimbus to model the subsurface desorption, diffusion, recondensation, and outgassing of water vapour in the porous and thermally conductive lunar interior. We find that long-term stability against solar heating requires an activation energy of similar to 1.2 eV in the top metres of lunar regolith, and a global monthly night time exospheric freeze out amounting to similar to 1 tonne. Furthermore, we find that a lower similar to 0.7 eV activation energy at depth would allow for water diffusion from large (0.1-1 km) depths to the surface, driven by the radiogenically imposed selenotherm. In combination with solar wind-produced water, such long-range diffusion could fully compensate for meteoroid-driven water losses. These results are significant because they offer quantitative solutions to several currently discussed problems in understanding the lunar water cycle, that could be further tested observationally.

来源平台：MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY