Lunar ice is a strategically important resource due to its potential to enable in-situ production of propellants for in-space refueling. However, existing remote sensing data are insufficient to determine whether prospective ice deposits meet reserve criteria. This study applies value of information (VOI) theory to investigate the economic rationale for completing ground-based exploration for lunar ice reserves. By investigating a range of potential extraction and exploration scenarios, the analysis demonstrates the utility of linking VOI to cash flow models as a framework for evaluating future missions. This study finds that uncertainties in deposit composition and technology performance are primary factors undermining the business case. Lunar-sourced propellant could yield positive net present value (NPV) outcomes-even with low propellant prices and launch costs. In representative future scenarios, the VOI from ground-based exploration is likely to exceed mission costs, suggesting that such campaigns can be economically justified.

来源平台：NEW SPACE-THE JOURNAL OF SPACE ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION