The delayed breakage of particles significantly affects the long-term mechanical properties of rockfill materials. This study examines the effects of particle strength dispersion on the distribution of time-dependent strength using fracture mechanics and probabilistic methods. Subsequently, the distribution of normalized maximum contact force (NMCF), defined as the ratio of the maximum contact force to instantaneous strength, for specimens with uniform particle size is derived using extreme value theory and Discrete Element Method (DEM). Based on this analysis, the probabilities of delayed breakage in rockfill specimens over various time intervals are calculated using a joint probability delayed breakage criterion. The feasibility of the proposed method is validated by comparing theoretical calculation with DEM triaxial creep simulation results that accounted for particle breakage. The findings offer innovative tools and theoretical insights for understanding and predicting the particle delayed breakage behavior of rockfill materials and for developing macro-micro creep crushing constitutive models.
