With increasing water depth, marine drilling conductors exhibit higher slenderness ratios, significantly reducing their resistance to environmental loads in Arctic waters. These conductors, when subjected to combined wind, current, and ice loads, may experience substantial horizontal displacements and bending moments, potentially compromising offshore operational safety and wellhead stability. Additionally, soil disturbance near the mudline diminishes the conductor's bearing capacity, potentially rendering it inadequate for wellhead support and increasing operational risks. This study introduces a static analysis model based on plastic hinge theory to evaluate conductor survivability. The conductor analysis divides the structure into three segments: above waterline, submerged, and embedded below mudline. An idealized elastic-plastic p-y curve model characterizes soil behavior beneath the mudline, while the finite difference method (FDM) analyzes the conductor's mechanical response under complex pile-head boundary conditions. Numerical simulations using ABAQUS validate the plastic hinge approach against conventional methods, confirming its accuracy in predicting structural performance. These results provide valuable insights for optimizing installation depths and bearing capacity designs of marine drilling conductors in ice-prone regions.

来源平台：CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING