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Frequent road collapses caused by water leakages from pipelines pose a severe threat to urban safety and the wellbeing of city residents. Limited research has been conducted on the relationship between pipeline leakage and soil settlement, thus resulting in a lack of mathematical models that accurately describe the soil settlement process resulting from water erosion. In this study, we developed an equation for pipeline leakage, conducted physical model experiments on road collapses induced by drainage pipeline leakage, investigated the functional relationship between drainage pipeline leakage and soil settlement, and validated this relationship through physical experiments with pipelines of various sizes. The results indicated that drainage pipeline leakage triggered internal erosion and damaged the soil layers in four stages: soil particle detachment, seepage channel formation, void development, and road collapse. When the pipeline size was increased by a factor of 1.14, the total duration of road collapse induced by pipeline leakage increased by 20.78%, and the total leakage water volume increased by 33.5%. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the theoretical and actual settlement exceeded 0.9, thus demonstrating the reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed settlement calculation method. The findings of this study serve as a basis for monitoring soil settlement and issuing early road collapse warnings.

来源平台：NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW