中国湿润-干旱过渡带水循环过程对气候变化的响应机制

水文循环 水文过程 分布式水文模型 气候变化 能量平衡
刘昌明 2014-01 项目
Since the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in China has changed under the impact of climate change, the government urgently needs the adaptation strategy to the change. The hydrological cycle is the theoretical basis of the water resources problem. Additionally, hydrological cycle in the arid-humid transition zone is very sensitive to the climate change. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the response mechanism of hydrological processes to climate change in the arid-humid transition zone of China. The research would be helpful for the water resources management of China under climate change. The main research includes: 1) investigate the swing range of the arid-humid transition zone during last decades; build the sensitive index which comprehensively indicates the sensitivity of hydrological cycle to climate change; 2) analyze the inconsistency of evapotranspiration estimation from water balance model and energy balance model, and develop a distributed water cycle integrated simulation system based on the coupled water and heat process; 3) reveal the mechanism of nonlinear response of evapotranspiration and runoff to climate change based on the hydrological modeling, indoor tests and field investigation. 4) estimate the future trend of runoff in the arid-humid transition zone of China based on the comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change and human activities.
在气候变化的背景下,我国水资源时空分布发生了变化,国家近期对水资源变化及其适应问题研究需求十分迫切。水循环是水资源问题的理论基础,湿润-干旱过渡带水循环的时空变化对气候变化非常敏感,本项目拟开展湿润-干旱过渡带水循环过程对气候变化的响应研究,为区域水资源管理对气候变化的适应提供科学依据。主要内容:1)识别我国湿润-干旱过渡带及其摆动范围,分析过渡带水循环的时空变化特征、水热平衡的格局及变化规律;2) 从水圈和气圈相互作用出发,研发耦合水热平衡变化的分布式水文模型,模拟中国湿润-干旱过渡带主要水循环过程;3)在过渡带选取代表不同气候特征的典型流域(西辽河、黄河中游、拉萨河),结合水文模型和室内外试验,揭示主要水循环要素对气候变化的响应机理;4)在气候变化对过渡带水循环影响分析的基础上,综合人类活动对水循环过程的影响,预估过渡带未来“蓝水”与“绿水”的转化趋势。