天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川变化预测和加速消融机理的研究及应用

冰川厚度 冰川温度 冰川变化预测 冰川加速消融
李忠勤 2007-01 项目
【英文摘要】Most of alpine glaciers in the word have shrunk since twentieth century, and this rate appears the tide of accelerating in recent 20 years. Therefore, the study on prediction and mechanism of acceleration melting of Glacier are becoming hot topic! However, no matter what by the climate-responed models to predict the change of the glacier, or by analyse the mechanism of the accelerating melting of Glacier, which all based on the long-term observation of glacier physics. In China there is only the glacier No.1 have this conditions. This research intentes to observe the glacier thickness, temperature, the ice formation process, glacial terminus position and surface velocity to study the prediction and mechanism of accelerating melting of Glacier No.1 at headwaters of Urumqi River, and find a theory which have the commen sense , then applicate it to another 2-3 glaciers. At the same time, explain why the glacier melting is accelerating. This research will fill up the blank of this field in our country, and offer the theory for prediction the change of the glacier under the climate change.
【中文摘要】20世纪以来, 世界上大多数的山岳冰川呈现出退缩状态,并且这一退缩在最近的20年出现了加速趋势。因此,有关冰川加速消融的机理和未来变化趋势方面的研究成为众所关注的热点。然而,无论是通过冰川对气候的响应模式来预测冰川变化,还是从机理上分析冰川加速消融的原因,都需要以长期的冰川物理学观测为基础。在中国,具备这一条件的冰川,目前几乎只有天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川。本研究拟通过对冰川厚度、温度以及成冰作用等制约这一研究的基本物理参数进行观测,对冰川表面运动速度进行补充观测,开展1号冰川变化预测和冰川加速消融机理等方面的研究,并通过这一研究,建立适合于冰川预测的具有普遍意义的理论和方法,并将其应用于其它2-3条冰川的研究。同时从机理上解释众多冰川加速消融的原因。本研究将填补我国在这一领域的研究空白,为预测未来气候变化条件下的冰川变化提供理论基础。