中高纬外强迫因子对夏季欧亚中高纬度阻塞环流的协同影响机理

外强迫因子 阻塞环流 协同影响 年代际变化 数值模拟
张若楠 2016-01 项目
The Eurasian blocking circulation anomalies over the mid-high latitudes during summer is one of the primary circulations associated with southern China droughts and floods. And the formulation of blocking circulation is closely related to atmospheric internal modes and external forcing factors which are playing an increasingly important role. In order to investigate the cause of blocking circulation anomalies on the interannual and decadal timescale, it is crucial to explore the impact of preceding external forcing factors and the mechanisms responsible for the influence. However, previous studies focus mainly on single external forcing factor as well as its influence, and far little attention has been paid to the combined impact of multiple factors. Therefore, in the present study, on the basis of critical processes in sea-land-air interaction, we attempt to identify the key external forcing factors, such as Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover and North Atlantic sea surface temperature, and further to analyse the decadal changes in the relationship between key factors and circulation anomalies over the blocking domains. In view of the configuration of key factors, the physical mechanism responsible for the combined impact of key factors on the circulation anomalies over the blocking domains will be diagnosed by investigating the heating and transient vorticity forcing, via observational data and numerical simulation. Furthermore, the experienced forecast models would also be constructed. In the present project, we are beginning to get a deeper insights into the combined impact of preceding external forcing factors on the summer circulation anomalies over the Eurasian blocking domains. It aims to provide a scientific basis for improving the skill of summer climate forecast and thus increasing the ability to deal with disasters.
夏季欧亚中高纬阻塞环流异常是影响我国南方旱涝的关键环流之一。阻塞环流的形成与前期中高纬外强迫和大气内部因子变异紧密相关,其中外强迫因子起着越来越重要的作用。认识年际-年代际尺度阻塞环流异常成因,有必要探索前期外强迫多因子对它的影响机理。关于影响机理的研究,以往工作大多针对外强迫单因子,对多因子多尺度协同作用研究不足。因此,本课题基于海陆气相互作用的关键过程,首先识别影响阻塞环流的前期秋冬春季外强迫因子(北极海冰、欧亚大陆积/融雪和北大西洋海温),分析前期多因子与阻塞环流异常年际关系的年代际转变及其成因。然后考虑多因子相互配置,结合诊断分析和数值模拟,基于热力强迫和波流相互作用等物理过程,揭示前期外强迫多因子对阻塞环流的协同影响机理,建立相关经验预测模型。据此,本项目将建立外强迫多因子对阻塞环流异常的协同影响机理的深入认识,为提高我国夏季短期气候预测水平和国家开展防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。