渭河流域农业干旱评估与致灾机理研究

农业干旱 水文循环 分布式水文模型 作物生长 流域生态水文
左德鹏 2014-01 项目
Global climate change has significantly changed the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and air temperature. Due to the particular physical geographical conditions, drought events in China occurred frequently with a trend of increasing during the past decades. Especially, extreme drought events, that seriously affected agricultural production and food security, have resulted in huge losses in agriculture. In this proposal, a distributed hydrological model including an improved crop growth module will be developed. The crop yield will be estimated at watershed scale, and the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of agricultural drought will be analyzed. The disaster mechanism of agricultural drought will be investigated, and the loss of agricultural drought will be evaluated in the Wei River basin. Firstly, the hydrological cycle of the Wei River basin will be simulated by the distributed hydrological model, and the crop growth module of the model will be modified; Secondly, the proposed drought index based on the concept of blue and green water, combined with existing drought indices will be used to analyze the agricultural droughts in the Wei River basin; Finally, the mechanism of agricultural drought hazard in the Wei River basin will be investigated, and the responses of crop yield to water deficit will be quantitatively analyzed. The crop water production function will be established, and the impact of drought on crop yield will be evaluated. This study will provide theoretical basis and technological support to mitigate the impact of droughts on agriculture.
全球变化显著改变了降水与气温的时空分布特征,加之我国特殊的自然地理条件,使得近年来干旱事件呈广发和频发的态势,严重影响农业生产与粮食安全,造成巨大农业经济损失。本项目拟构建渭河流域分布式水文模型,模拟流域尺度农作物产量,分析农业干旱时空演变规律,剖析农业旱灾致灾机理,从而对渭河流域农业旱灾损失进行综合评估。首先,借助分布式水文模型模拟渭河流域水循环过程,并完善其相对薄弱的作物生长模块以模拟流域尺度农作物产量;其次,提出基于蓝水绿水概念的农业干旱评价指标,并优选已有干旱指标分析流域农业干旱时空演变规律;最后,深入剖析渭河流域农业旱灾致灾机理,定量分析作物产量对水分亏缺的响应关系,建立作物水分生产函数,识别农业旱灾致灾因子,探讨干旱对农作物产量的影响,从而对渭河流域农业旱灾损失进行综合评估,为减轻干旱对渭河流域农业的影响提供理论依据与技术支撑。