天山冰川储量变化和面积变化关系分析研究

天山冰川 冰川储量 冰川储量变化和面积变化关系 冰川变化机理
王璞玉 2014-01 项目
Changes of glacier volume are directly related to the changes of glacial water resources and contribution of glacier changes to river runoff. However, observation of glacier volume change is more difficult than area change. Therefore, it is urgent to conduct the thorough research of the relation between glacier volume change and area change so as to estimate glacier volume change from easily surveyed area change. In view of this, the main object of this study is to make quantitative investigation on the relation of glacier volume change and area change, and analyze the forming mechanism with the support of GPR-3S technology, based on the supplementary observation and available data of 12 glaciers in the Tian Shan. Then, the scaling relation of glacier volume change and area change, suited for current climate condition and response process of glaciers, is established using statistical method for the purpose of estimating glacier volume change from area change, which sets a basis for the impact assessments of glacier changes to hydrology and water resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Furthermore, study of the relation provides important reference for the establishment and modification of the empirical formula for estimating glacier volume.
冰川储量的变化与冰川水资源量的变化以及冰川对河川径流的贡献量密切相关。然而,冰川储量变化的观测要比冰川面积变化复杂的多。因此,亟待在冰川储量变化和面积变化关系方面开展深入的研究,以期通过比较容易获得的冰川面积变化来估算冰川储量的变化。本项目拟选择天山12条代表性冰川,在GPR-3S技术集成系统支持下,通过补充观测,结合已有数据,定量研究近50年天山冰川储量变化和面积变化的相互关系,并对其机理进行分析。在此基础上,利用统计方法,建立适合于目前气候条件和冰川响应过程的冰川储量变化-面积变化公式,实现通过测定冰川面积变化来估算冰川储量变化的目的,为评估新疆冰川变化对水文、水资源的影响奠定基础。该方面研究,还可以为冰川储量估算经验公式的建立和修正提供参考依据。