长江源区季节雪盖对多年冻土活动层水热输运过程的影响研究

多年冻土活动层 季节雪盖 雪深 不均匀 模拟
张世强 2007-01 项目
【英文摘要】Based on the observed data of monitoring sites of the active layer of permafrost, as well as the intensified observed data in Dongkemadi basin in Tanggula Mountain, three snow parameterization schemes were compared when coupled with the land surface model VIC-3L. The results suggest that both schemes are very sensitive to the early accumulation of snow depth and the accumulation time, however, different stratified schemes only have limited impact on the improvement of simulation results. The observation data of along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and the upper reaches of Shule River and simulation both indicate that there are only thin snow cover in winter 2007-2009, and the spatial distribution is very uneven, which suggest that the great impact of seasonal snow cover on Tibetan Plateau on climate maybe have previously exaggerated, this point is also were appreciated in other recent studies. It is also suggests that combination of remote sensing data and observed data to more accurate describe the spatial heterogeneity in each grid is more important on the improvement of land surface process models. The model simulation results were improved by calculating the soil thermal physical parameters considering ice content and soil salinity. Studies on model parameter optimization and uncertainty concluded that the integration of different optimization techniques and rules, improve the efficiency and accuracy on probability algorithm, and ensemble different simulation results will improve the simulation efficiency and reduce the uncertainty of the model. On the MODIS satellite remote sensing retrieval of snow cover analysis indicated that snow distribution in Qilian Mountains is extremely uneven. Regional precipitation and runoff analysis suggested that the upper reaches of the Yellow River runoff changes have been strong impacted by the East Asian monsoon, the total runoff in Xinjiang has the strong positive and negative relationship with the western North Pacific monsoon index and the subtropical westerlies index respectively.
【中文摘要】对青藏公路沿线多年冻土活动层监测场地的原有观测资料,以及对在唐古拉冬克玛底流域等地的加强定位观测资料,利用3种对不同雪深的参数化方案对陆面水文过程模型VIC-3L中的积雪参数化方案的对比表明,模型对前期积雪累积厚度和积累时间非常敏感,但不同分层方案对改进模拟效果影响有限。对比表明,青藏公路沿线和疏勒河上游2007-2009年冬季积雪厚度很薄,并且空间分布极不均匀,这与最近其它研究也发现的以前可能过分夸大了青藏高原冬季积雪对气候的影响的认识不谋而合。结合遥感数据更准确的刻画单个格网内积雪的分布对改进陆面过程模型更为重要。通过在冬季土壤热物理参数的计算中引入含冰量及土壤盐度,提高了模式的模拟效果。对模型参数优化和不确定性的研究表明,建立各种优化算法的融合技术和法则,提高概率水文算法的效率和精度,以及集合预报是进一步减少模拟不确定性的发展方向。对MODIS卫星遥感反演的雪覆盖率的分析表明,祁连山区的积雪分布极不均匀。对区域降水和径流的分析表明,黄河上游径流变化受到较强的东亚季风的影响;新疆总径流分别于西北太平洋季风指数和西风指数存在显著的正负相关关系。