中国西北山区积雪及融雪径流水资源对气候变化的响应研究

气候变化 SRM融雪径流模型 雪盖制图 黑河流域上游
王建 2007-01 项目
【英文摘要】The upstream of Heihe River basin in northwestern China, was chose as the study area. We developed the optimized technology for snow mapping for the mountainous region in northwestern China, and then based on the normalized difference topography model, to eliminate the effect of topography and the technology for division between snow and cloud. We describe and validate a new method that retrieves snow-covered area.With this method, the Kappa coefficient and the accuracy of the snow cover area are higher than with MODIS snow cover products. We also describe and validate the C model for mapping fraction of snow cover. The statistical results of mean snow cover, mean absolute error, RMS error and correlation coefficient show the modified C model is better than the S model. The observation data of the meteorological and hydrological stations located in the upstream of Heihe river basin were utilized to analyze the status and the regularity for the climatic change from 1956 to 2008. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was chose to simulate snowmelt runoff and scenario forecast the change trend of snowmelt runoff in catchment scale for the mountainous region in Northwestern China. The results show that climatic warming was apparent in the upstream of Heihe River basin in the past 50a. Annual average air temperature of three different weather stations located in the basin has increased 2.1℃, 2.6℃ and 2.9℃ respectively. The snowmelt runoff has increased obviously from 1970 to present. With different warming climate scenarios, the results by SRM simulating showed that the first occurred time of snowmelt runoff shift ahead and discharge become larger as responses of snowmelt runoff to air temperature increasing, and the influence of temperature rising on average discharge of the whole snow season is not obvious. On the other hand, simulated discharge showed a marked increase trend with the increase of precipitation. And, the simulated results show that the increase of precipitation almost has no influence on the occurring time of snowmelt runoff.
【中文摘要】本研究选择中国西北黑河上游为代表性流域。以云雪区分以及地形归一化模型消除地形影响为基础,通过使用CIVCO地形校正及NDSI阈值调整,发展了适合我国山区的MODIS雪盖产品算法。在MODIS雪覆盖比例产品算法S模型的基础上,发展了提取山区积雪覆盖比例的C模型。C模型的平均雪盖率、平均绝对误差、均方根误差都优于S模型,模型拟合的相关系数都在80%以上。在新的遥感制图方法的基础上,探讨了中国西北山区积雪以及融雪径流水资源对气候变化的响应并预测其变化趋势。应用地面台站观察资料,分析了1956-2008年中国西北山区气候变化状况与规律,模拟并情景分析了融雪径流的变化。结果表明:近50年来,黑河流域上游气候变暖的趋势相当明显。流域中三个代表性的气象台站,其气温分别上升了2.1℃,2.6℃,2.9℃。融雪径流量从1970年开始直到现在,有明显的增长。通过不同的假设情景分析发现,在气温上升的情势下,融雪径流峰值提前的幅度随气温增加的幅度而加大,但是单独的气温上升对融雪径流的总量并没有太大影响。模拟径流值随着降水的增加有显著的增加,而融雪径流发生并没有明显的提前。