Permafrost thaw is an important aspect of Earth's carbon cycles. Initial estimates suggest that permafrost thaw could contribute anywhere between 20 to 500 Gt of CO2-eq by 2100. These estimates are all fundamentally centered around one number: active layer thickness (ALT). The deeper the ALT, the more emissions. Unfortunately, ALT is a highly spatially heterogeneous number and determined by numerous thermal, soil hydrology, and geomorphological effects. The remotely sensed active layer thickness (ReSALT) algorithm was introduced in 2010 to provide scientists with a way to model ALT heterogeneously at meter-scale resolution. However, upon inspection, this work shows that ReSALT's modeling approach is self-inconsistent when using a variable soil porosity model. This work then introduces SCReSALT (Self-Consistent ReSALT) to solve that problem. Experimental comparisons to a past study in Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska show significant improvement and suggest that SCReSALT should become a standard tool in permafrost thaw modeling. Code to reproduce all results can be found at https://github.com/jmathur25/permafrost-prediction.

来源平台：IGARSS 2024-2024 IEEE INTERNATIONAL GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING SYMPOSIUM, IGARSS 2024